ThatOneKrazyKaptain

Had Trump won in 2020, he’d have taken the fall for the Recession and Hyperinflation and it would have caused a 2008 effect. Populist Wave haulted, strangled in it’s crib by Coronachan.

Had Trump won in 2020, he’d be done now and his VP would still be the democracy respecting Pence.

Trump when elected in 2016 had no major plan and mostly left the employees of the state intact, and in 2020 the change was minimal. Now there’s a full blown scheme to control the government

In 2020 they didn’t know how much they could get away with. They’ve seen the limits now.

Winning in 2020 means no January 6th shattering the overton window and leading SCOTUS to some interesting choices about power.

2020-2024 had one Supreme Court Justice to appoint. Now there’s another 2 if not 3

In 2020 it would have been close. Now Democrats will have to regain ground, New Jersey New Hampshire and Minnesota are now Swing States.

2016 Trump had his populist wave weakened by Gary Johnson and Evan McMulin who blocked the popular vote and kept states like Colorado and New Mexico out of his hands. 2016 Trump sucked with Hispanics. That initial wave would have burnt out with the COVID fuckery. Instead Democrats slotted in, took the 4 worst possible years, and are handing it back having effectively both given them another shot in the arm and crippled themselves. There goes the court. This isn’t John Kerry, it’s Carter.

I’ve heard of 2020 hindsight, but this is ridiculous

I think there’s a handful of small rural counties where a couple fewer Trump voters showed up? I mean there’s like 3 or 4 counties where John Kerry is the best democrat preformance since 2000 so weird shit can happen

2020 is not the fucking baseline, this was above average, great even. 2020 was the highest turnout since Reconstruction you can’t rely on that to stick

Back Again

Also if you’re removing Stein you also have to remove RFK Jr to be fair which basically undoes it

…RFK Jr did just as much damage as Stein did and got almost the same number of votes despite being off a ton of important large states. He’s the reason New Mexico isn’t so close it’s a Swing State. It ain’t the greens

yes

Nevada, a swing state(well, supposed to be one, it seemingly didn’t get close enough to count) was won by bigger margins then states like Minnesota, or New Jersey(which was a ‘safe blue’ state). Illinois shifted massively and Harris only one it by 7.5 points. Virginia might be slightly sub-Hillary margins. New Mexico would have broken the swing state margin if not for RFK Jr.

If you gave Harris the minimal number of votes to flip the Swing States and nothing else, she’d win the EC, but not the Popular Vote due to Trump bumping up his margins everywhere and cutting into blue state margins

(Maine could theoretically still end up that tight, but it’s unlikely) Nevada is seemingly on track to not qualify as a Swing State as the Margin is currently +R 5.2

If you insist on including it and drawing the line as 6 point margin then Virginia and New Mexico also become Swing States. Maine is even more likely too.

I will note at the rate things are going Trump has like a 85% chance of beating his 2020 numbers and a small chance of beating Biden’s 2020 numbers. It’s not JUST Harris poor turnout.

(Also her turnout was only bad by 2020 standards, it’s still higher than John Kerry or Gore or Hillary)