I’ve seen graphs of the massive trade disparity between the US and China. If either side cut one off, there would be pressure to find replacement. It would be “cutting off the nose to spite the face.” So far the pressure to move to India has only really ramped up since the COVID pandemic. It takes a while to build factories and train workers
It won’t happen until there is a military clash between the two, which will end in respecting boundaries or WW3. China will fight to keep US industry from moving to a neighbor. If China wants to expand, they need capital.
Again, you can’t just magic industry into existence. It takes time to create it. India is not a replacement for China, and it has a long way to go before it can do what China does. Meanwhile, China has no problems expanding because it’s directly investing into countries in BRI and BRICS.
Investment is nice, but when the yuan is worthless to the euro or dollar it means that investment can be easily bought. China not paying on it’s debts means the banks of the world devalue their currency. That means China has no purchasing power.
