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Can recent growth rates persist? China’s GDP has been running hot for decades now. Seems like they need to level off at some point.

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37 points

Geopolitical Economy Report did two long video discussions on China’s growth last month which are worth watching if you’re interested.

In short, yes. China can keep up about a 5% average annual growth rate. Because capital is controlled by the state, and the state invests in developing the means of production and improving people’s quality of life, China is indeed capable of achieving their development goals.

Interestingly enough, just as the decade or so of near ten percent annual growth was planned and achieved, the recent deceleration to about five percent growth was also planned.

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5 points

Interesting, which videos are these?

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4 points

I’m not the commenter you replied to but it’s most likely this one and this one.

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9 points
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i dont actually understand what this means, what does “running hot” mean (if it’s based off some neoclassical economics idea i seriously doubt it’s valid)

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Sorry, I’m just speaking colloquially. I just mean the GDP has been very high for a long time now.

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10 points
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I’ve seen liberals on reddit and other sites mention this kind of thing before. i’d like some sort of real explanation that high gdp growth will be a predictor for lower gdp growth in the future. If not, i dont think there’s any real reason to worry about China’s gdp growth to dramatically lower in the coming years

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6 points

In the long-run, it’s impossible as the current high growth rates come from technological and infrastructural catchup.

It’ll be possible for roughly about a decade more as China’s still developing. Obviously subject to material conditions.

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