I’m by no means an expert in international relations. However, with respect to your last paragraph, I do think that China monitors the development carefully. I would even go so far and assume that they won’t act on Taiwan until the situation in the Ukraine is decided. Not because the cases are so similar, but because China and Russia seem to be important partners for each other. Right now, China is supporting Russia financially by buying resources from them (if I’m not mistaken) and also supporting them with equipment embargoed by the EU/US. China will probably know what it’s risking when they attack Taiwan and I doubt that they want to create that sort of situation while one of their most important partners (might be mistaken here) is in a war that binds their resources and weakens their support for China.
On the other hand, they could also try to start the war on Taiwan soon, hoping that NATO/US stretch their support too thin.
Tl;Dr: I don’t know either.
The number of fronts in this war seems to keep expanding.
I hate that I predicted this all the way back when the “two week” lockdown was starting, and that nobody listened to me and I got accused of “valuing the economy over Grandma”.
If my account hadn’t been deleted I could link to my comment where I predicted:
- lockdowns would extend far longer than two weeks
- it would ruin the global economy
- causing world war 3 to start
I was just laughed at basically.
I can’t follow you. Where is the connection between lockdowns (I assume you mean the Covid19 lockdowns?) and the war in Ukraine?
I’m jumping in after skimming so much long discussion… But I do see a possible link here. COVID and the lockdowns have shaken up a lot of society. I remember even back when the anti-mask and BLM protests happened in America about the same time (I’m not American btw, just seeing some news) feeling like the stress and shut-in-ness of lockdowns and COVID fear is probably part of the fuel for people to protest: it gives a sort of release from that.
Now the economy’s been shaken up so much, and more people are finding it hard to get an acceptable job. The comfortable life trajectory many people were on has taken a hit and wealth they assumed was safe and assured (including things like house-buying prospects) has crumbled beneath them.
Many are also suffering brain fog and Long COVID, making life feel less stable, and hitting their job prospects.
The intensity of COVID responses also seems to have given much fuel to American political disunity, and hatred and resentment, as well as political/civil frustration elsewhere in the world.
I don’t know how Russia has been, but I imagine there’s some of the same, at least. And all this unsettling of life and intangible worry, puts people in a much readier situation to rise up around some flash point - such as a war - or to be desperate enough to concede whatever demands their government makes of them - such as conscription for dubious end.
Not that that’s the whole picture by any means, but, perhaps, there is some link from lockdowns to global war.
