I think that it will not be waged between North and South for state rights, but rather between Republicans and Democrats for human rights. It will happen before our 250th anniversary in 2026.
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No. Absolutely not.
- No defined or contiguous territory - The Dem/GOP split is more rural vs urban than state vs state. Sure, you have “blue states” and “red states” but except for MA, FL, etc, the distinction is usually built on 10% of a state’s population.
- Few people are that interested - You need a substantial number of people on both sides ready to murder the other over culture war BS. People are more angry at the culture war BS itself.
- Police and military ideas have changed - Modern policing didn’t even exist until the late 1800’s. A large, pre-existing volunteer Federal military (vs militia) is also pretty new.
- War sucks - One thing about being involved in lots of stupid wars abroad. No one wants to see that here.
But that all said, there will be more violence. It just won’t look like war. It’ll look like more Jan 6th coups, BLM protests, domestic terrorism, etc.