So, genuine question … who’s willing to predict whether Biden will go to the election or not?
I’m a not a USian or plugged in that much, but this topic feels strangely fractured. Anyone with some certainties they’re willing to put online?
Edit: not a USian.
https://abc.com/news/02867c69-fefa-4807-a561-bb2d77425d5e/category/1138628
Biden has an easy, but hopefully not too softball, interview scheduled for Friday (July 5th), with a transcript available that night and the full interview airing on Sunday.
The interview is with George Stephanopoulos who worked in the Clinton Whitehouse, so he will be favorable to Biden. However Biden needs to prove that the poor debate performance was a fluke, so it can’t just be softball questions.
Also the transcript being available earlier means everyone is going to be clear on the message (which is good in general) but also means the focus is going to be on performance.
If Democrats/Biden spend the next week embarrassed by that interview then Biden is probably done. The RNC holds their convention the following week, they’ll beat on Biden and you can either let them (wasting time/energy) or you can announce just as it gets started and suck the air out of their convention.
However I fully expect this interview to go well. This is a smart idea by Biden (the timing sucks, but he doesn’t have much of a choice). He needs to prove that debate was a fluke. This is exactly what you want to see from Biden. But it he fucks up again, it’s going to hurt.
Everyone knows Trump is a steaming pile of shit. People voting for him don’t care. Democrats will come out and support Biden, but you need the undecided voters (whomever they are) to go with them.
So to answer your question, I fully expect Biden to go all the way to the election. I’m not sure that’s what I want or that it’s the best idea, but Biden is taking the right steps to turn things around. This next week is an important one.
I think scheduling a 15 minute interview and otherwise sticking to short scripted events is already a failure. They need to flood the zone with him being out and in front of cameras to dispel the debate appearance. That they’re not doing that is its own indicator.
They were trying this the few days after the debate where he was at various rallies. Just him, in front of his own supporters. He imho he still didn’t come off all that great :(
It’s almost entirely a choice in Biden’s hands. The indicators are all bad, but he’s famously stubborn and his family, who’s suffered through the campaign, wants him to keep going. I don’t think his situation is recoverable. He’s had public calls to drop out and plenty of high profile Democrats giving hedging answers about his future, but I can’t predict how Biden will react. Baseline personality would suggest he stays, but his situation is really bad.
