Temperatures above 50C used to be a rarity confined to two or three global hotspots, but the World Meteorological Organization noted that at least 10 countries have reported this level of searing heat in the past year: the US, Mexico, Morocco, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Pakistan, India and China.
In Iran, the heat index – a measure that also includes humidity – has come perilously close to 60C, far above the level considered safe for humans.
Heatwaves are now commonplace elsewhere, killing the most vulnerable, worsening inequality and threatening the wellbeing of future generations. Unicef calculates a quarter of the world’s children are already exposed to frequent heatwaves, and this will rise to almost 100% by mid-century.
Further, what happens when everyone knows the power isn’t coming back and instead the roads out of Phoenix all get backed up and people die in the heat of their cars trying to escape the heat of Phoenix. Because heat can kill a lot of vehicles, and a lot of people have ill-maintained vehicles, meaning roads being completely blocked from escape can happen fast.
I really think Phoenix will become the first mass casualty event from climate change in the USA.
EDIT: Obligatory Peggy Hill. Peggy gets it.
That’s one of those nightmare thoughts - when the power goes out, what do people usually do for a while? Wait for it to come back on. Someone is coming to fix it, right? Much of modern society is built upon such assumptions, and it mostly works. So I think you’re right for some, but many would perish at home, trying to outlast the day (and what if the night doesn’t cool?)
And then their food goes bad. Three days of starvation is all it takes to eat cake.
Water also disappears. At some point water is being pumped by a power source. I suppose that’s more when people get driven out, by hunger and thirst than by just curiosity or a plan. So much easier to leave before things go bad, but like Katrina showed, mobility is a class thing, some people can’t leave like that.
Lots of cars > lots of traffic > stopped cars > radiators don’t cool > cars break down > roads blocked
Most people buy the cheapest car batteries they can get. As a Floridian I can tell you, the heat destroys these things faster than most people realize. Everyone is already strapped for cash so they’re going to be driving around with batteries that barely start their car for months before it finally leaves them stranded.
Car radiators have fans. They can idle indefinitely. You’re more likely to eventually run out of gas.
Edit: oh you mean because of the heat. I don’t think that’s going to be an issue, ambient temp is still going to be far below the roughly 200°F of an engine.
Do you not live in the USA? Do you not realize how many people are driving around old beaters that can absolutely get overheated in such an environment?
In my hometown more than half the driveways are filled with multiple beater-ass cars, most of which don’t work and are just sort of rotting. They just keep adding new ones by buying more shitty vehicles that die quickly and doing the same cycle over again.
This assumes a car with a working cooling system. How many people have old cars with bad head gaskets or a radiator leak and “just fill it with water” and not fix the problem, only to find that pure water isn’t enough, as modern cars will walk up and down from 185-235F, which will blow steam before the fans kick on. They never noticed because they only drove a few miles a day, not long or hard enough to find out there is a real problem and not a nuisance.
That’s when it becomes Rita as opposed to “heat Katrina”.
For folks who don’t remember/know about Rita because they didn’t live through it, less than a month after Katrina a record-breaking cat 5 hurricane was heading for Texas. Everyone still had Katrina on their minds and panicked. Millions of people (literally estimated as 2.5–3.7 million) evacuated, or tried.
The highways out of Houston came to a total standstill. About 100 people died before the storm even hit land because of the evacuation. And then the hurricane itself was nbd; the evacuation was literally the worst part.
Realistically it’ll be when people can no longer insure their homes when we see the first mass migrations. Florida is already at the point where only state insurance will cover hurricane prone areas, and it sounds like that currently costs $7k/year. Anyone have any bets for if it’ll be the southwest suffering more frequent more severe fires that gets it first or Florida and neighboring states from more severe hurricanes?
