I think it’s probably Wagner was moved there for that reason and putin wants to test if alliance will be afraid to reason.
If NATO responds then he sacrifices just Belarus, but if it won’t then other eastern countries are at risk.
Wagner already found out before, but we can do it again I guess. And the rest of NATO can tag in too, this time.
I don’t think he cares about Wagner, he wants to see if NATO backs up Poland if Poland is attacked as a response to Poland “attacking” Belarus.
BTW: Poland doesn’t have stellar reputation in the west, primarily because of politicians who attack west and strangely are warm towards Russia. One might say “what do you mean? Poland is very anti Russia” and this is true with most Poles, but the ruling party still continues fighting with the west, some even say that they don’t know which enemy is worse, west or east, like WTF? Then there’s a Konfederacja populist party by Russia which is fully against west and its leaders advocated to improve relations with Russia. Most members of course are less open and saying that we should give Russia what it wants or we get attacked.
That was also the only party that demanded our politicians to apologize when a protester splashed Russian ambassador with red paint at the beginning of the full invasion.
I think that was the point /u/gravitas_deficiency@sh.itjust.works was making. Russia sacrificed Wagner in Syria and are more than willing to do it again.
