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14 points

China is building lots of solar power in Cuba, which will probably be more impactful than joining BRICS for Cuba (assuming the current plans are scaled up, since right now they are just 2% of Cuba’s electricity).

Even if Cuba joins BRICS fully, it will take a lot of time, and it is unknown exactly how far BRICS will go in terms of circumventing sanctions. Furthermore, circumventing sanctions only allows them to trade, they will still actually need energy production to be stepped up. The only way for them to do that will be to import oil (forcing them into dependency) or through power generated domestically.

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15 points

Yaeh, building solar in Cuba is obviously a very good thing, but I’m thinking just more immediate stuff like fuel supplies would be good. I guess BRICS isn’t really required for that since Russia for example could be sending fuel without having to worry what the west thinks.

I suspect western sanctions are going to be increasingly less of a concern because we’re already seeing an alternative financial system forming. At the same time the west is becoming increasingly less relevant to the global economy. We can also see how the west is starting to put tariffs on Chinese goods, and that will only expand going forward. That means that China increasingly needs to refocus trade outside the west. And China being the biggest trading partner for majority of countries would mean that their partners will have to do that too if the west starts applying sanctions against countries trading outside the dollar.

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10 points

Yaeh, building solar in Cuba is obviously a very good thing, but I’m thinking just more immediate stuff like fuel supplies would be good.

Yeah, China giving more assistance could really alleviate the situation in Cuba, but since I am not too familiar with the internal decision making process of China, I can’t really comment too much.

I suspect western sanctions are going to be increasingly less of a concern because we’re already seeing an alternative financial system forming.

The alternative system is still in the embryonic stages. Western sanctions are still very effective, for now, just not against countries like Russia which are powerful rivals.

And China being the biggest trading partner for majority of countries would mean that their partners will have to do that too if the west starts applying sanctions against countries trading outside the dollar.

This really depends on which country you are talking about. There is no shortage of countries which are still politically captured by the institutions of imperialism.

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12 points

I agree with all that, but my point is that China is effectively in the same situation as Russia now. Sooner or later the US will try seizing their funds, sanctioning them, and so on. So, China has no choice but to start insulating itself from western economic warfare. While a lot of countries are politically captured by the US, that doesn’t change their economic reality. For example, even rabidly pro western countries like Japan or Australia are highly dependent on China economically, and there is no way for them to cut China out without completely destroying their own economies. When China starts demanding that payments happen through a new system they will have no choice but to accommodate.

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