MOSCOW, July 30 (Reuters) - Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who has sometimes raised the spectre of a nuclear conflict over Ukraine, said on Sunday that Moscow would have to use a nuclear weapon if Kyiv’s ongoing counter-offensive was a success.
I would like y’all to assure me of two things. First, that neither Putin nor any of his successors are actually stupid enough to use nuclear weapons in any situation short of an existential threat because they understand MAD and recognize that using nuclear weapons would create an existential threat for them. Second, that neither Putin nor any of his successors are stupid enough to directly attack Poland or any other NATO or EU country because they recognize that they are outrageously outmatched in conventional warfare against NATO and even in their best case scenario (where China backs them and we wind up in a WWIII that somehow never turns nuclear) they still wind up with their government deposed and most of their country in ruin.
The problem is that it’s obvious by now that Russia can’t match Nato in this fight with conventional weapons. So from their perspective they probably don’t see any other option at this point. They can’t win a conventional war with Nato that’s certain. They probably can’t win a nuclear war with Nato either but there is at least some degree of uncertainty in that. It’s a choice between zero percent chance of winning and a non zero chance of winning.
I am of course presuming all diplomatic avenues are off the table at this point.