The Indian rice export ban, the war in Ukraine and El Niño are combining to create a “doom loop” for the world’s poorest people, as staple food prices soar.
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The cost of rice — a staple food for nearly half the world’s population — and other essentials, like wheat, corn and vegetable oils, are rising as geopolitical forces, extreme weather and a dawning El Niño disrupt global trade.
In its most recent rice outlook, the USDA said India was expected to ship a record 23.0 million tonnes in 2024, exceeding the combined shipments of the next two largest exporters — Thailand and Vietnam.
The Indian government runs the world’s largest food distribution program, catering to about 800 million people, according to McDonald Pelz business manager Sumit Gupta.
The Indian government has a policy of maintaining reserves of key commodities, and as it assessed the risk of El Niño, and the rapid pace of rice exports this year, it brought the trade to a close on July 20.
“This sharp increase in exports can be ascribed to high international prices due to [the] geo-political scenario, El Niño sentiments and extreme climatic conditions in other rice-producing countries,” the Indian Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution said in its statement declaring the ban.
At a conference in St Petersburg recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged 25,000-50,000 tons of free grain to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, the Central African Republic and Eritrea in the coming months.
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