I find it hard to imagine a future where fusion power would be cheap. The reactors will most likely be highly complex, with very expensive materials and lots of custom parts. Fission reactors are much simpler and even they have become too expensive to run without subsidies. ITER is supposed to cost 22 billion, but the US DOE estimates it will be closer to 65 billion. And ITER is a tiny test reactor that will still draw energy from the grid while running. If we ever get a fusion reactor that can actually produce energy, it’s going to be so much bigger and more complex than ITER. And it will have a maximum output and operating life, so a finite amount of energy it can produce during its lifetime. Divide the cost for R&D and construction by the amount of energy produced, and it will most likely come out as much more than solar/wind + storarge.
I’m personally quite interested in Helions design of fusion reactor, whilst I don’t necessarily think they’ll be the first to achieve a design viable of continuous operation, I think the insights gained from the much more complex and expensive “tradition” fusion reactors will hopefully help inform their design and make something viable for smaller scale cheaper operation that could be rolled out on a grander scale.
One thing that is apparent with energy tech is that it always starts out expensive and typically goes down in price due to wide adoption and large scale production.
Re the issues with operating life, etc; there are similar issues with almost every option whether solar/wind etc
Obviously either way we’re going to run into issues with large scale energy storage. Here’s hoping Sodium batteries provide some effective respite for that in the near future.
As a counter point, fission power did not really get cheaper once the initial difficulties were worked out. They are still highly complex machines that require a lot of engineering, custom parts and precision manufacturing. The same is true for fusion reactors, we still don’t have the technology to build one that actually produces power.
By comparison, solar and wind are pretty low-tech, so it’s easier to reduce cost by scaling up production and using automation.
Here’s hoping Sodium batteries provide some effective respite for that in the near future.
Yes, I have my hopes up for that one as well. Lithium-Ion was never meant to be cheap, it only got more affordable due to the massive scale of production, but it still uses expensive chemistry. If we could apply the same scale of production to a battery technology that uses cheaper materials and maybe less complicated processes, it would be a huge win.
