Eurozone PMI is below 50 which is a sign of economic contraction, we can debate whether this constitutes a recession currently, but I see no reason why the current trajectory would change going forward
Yeah, many signs are pointing down and I won’t be surprised if we get a recession here. But until it’s definitely there I will wait.
As for this indicator. Never heard of it, but there seem so many of those that I wouldn’t trust them unconditionally. This one for example points up:
Yeah, many signs are pointing down and I won’t be surprised if we get a recession here. But until it’s definitely there I will wait.
As for this indicator. Never heard of it, but there seem so many of those that I wouldn’t trust them unconditionally. This one for example points up:
Ultimately this comes down to energy costs. Production in Eurozone is now much more expensive because input costs are now higher. Cheap pipeline gas was what allowed Germany to compete with US and China. There is no viable alternative in the near term. It’s possible that Germany will be able to build out renewable infrastructure that will provide cheap energy at some point in the future, but that’s going to take years to do.
German companies are already starting to rely on Chinese companies
- https://carnewschina.com/2023/08/02/germans-are-waiving-the-white-flag-in-china-as-vw-plans-to-use-ev-platforms-from-leapmotor-saic-and-xpeng/
- https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-be-centre-mercedes-benz-2025-ev-sales-drive-automobilwoche-says-2023-07-23/
- this video is a has a good summary as well https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lK1TOBc5Txc
I think things will be a lot more clear by next year, but so far all the indicators seem to point towards only one possible trajectory here.
Energy was expensive, especially last winter, but it came back to “normal” levels.
Gas for example is at 10% of the high of last August and around the level of 2019.
Oil is more or less the same worldwide, so there is no disadvantage for Europe.
So which energy do you mean?
As for your video on “Germany’s worst fears are coming true: car brands moving production to China”. I think the car sector has it way worse. China is way better at building EV vehicles, which is pushing European companies out of China. German car sales will drop massively.
