This is a translation of an article I’ve just written in Spanish. If there is any error, let me know.
@zekiz the most significant impact will happen at the end of the month when the 3rd party tools that have been running the place quit working.
Don’t overlook what having an active alternative can do, too. If Reddit is the only place that is Reddit-like, and active, and well known, then it’s really hard to leave.
But multiple alternatives just had their profiles raised, and their activity levels skyrocket. If enough people stay on these alternative platforms, then it becomes easier for people to leave later.
There are two ways to increase evaporation: You can turn up the heat, which Reddit is doing itself right now, and you can reduce atmospheric pressure. This is what we’re doing by being active and engaging somewhere else.
Honestly, I’m a very active redditor with over 1000h on reddit and I will leave. However, I don’t think it will make such a major impact on the overall reddit experience when 3% are leaving. Even if they belong to the most active members on reddit. Sure we’ll definitely see a drop in users on the 1.7, but I don’t think it will have such a huge impact on the revenue.
I’m really hoping it does, but even then the question remains on how platforms like Lemmy or Kbin make money. They don’t have any ads and Lemmy and Kbin currently have about as many members as a large subreddit.
I was here before Lemmy blew up and I can say it definitely improved and it improved fast but well have to see how many actually stay here and stay active
If the company is already not profitable, losing some of the most active users can have a big effect. Every tick further away from profitability is huge, and a decline in content quality can absolutely produce such a downward tick.
Especially if that premium content doesn’t so much go away as move somewhere else.
Most people who have left don’t use the first party app, or don’t use the newer web UI, but some did. And more will follow as post quality suffers. And for each person tha leaves the default experiences, revenue will decline ever so slightly. In order to make up for that, the company needs to be more aggressive with its monetization, which makes the UX worse, which causes more people to leave. Then the cycle goes on.
This will be a slow process, but it’s the inevitable process of enshitification. Especially when you don’t already have a profitable business model. And Big Social is learning the hard way right now that community is profitable.
It’s kind of foolish to expect the millions of people on the platform to leave overnight. Anyone who wants to “win” and see reddit maulling right away is going to be disappointed.
I just want to talk to people with my computer, without seeing ads, and without paying a subscription. I was even willing to make a one time purchase of a well designed mobile app to do it on the go. But reddit is trying to be no longer suitable for that, so here I am. I continue to get to participate in conversations, so it is a win for me in my book.