Twitter is popular because of the massive user base. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts, where people use Twitter for the massive user base, which encourages more people to use Twitter. So escaping that spiral will require a mass exodus to something new. Because artists, musicians, celebrities, etc rely on that large user base to gain and maintain a following. So as long as Twitter has the users, that’s where the content will be.

Threads was a good indicator that people are willing to move if the new platform is available. Unfortunately for Threads, the launch was a fucking train wreck, so people quickly got tired of it and returned to Twitter. They didn’t even have basic functionality figured out. But as a proof of concept, it showed that people aren’t tied to Twitter specifically; They’re tied to the user base. If a new service manages to cultivate that user base, people will be willing to migrate.

Mastodon’s big issue so far has largely been visibility. People simply don’t know it exists, and the people who do know about it use it as a backup for their Twitter; They’re not using it to replace Twitter, but rather they’re double-posting everything to both Twitter and Mastodon. So the Twitter users have no reason to move to Mastodon, because the Mastodon users are still using Twitter. It’s a catch-22, where the Mastodon users need to use Twitter to maintain visibility, but then the Twitter users will never switch to Mastodon because everyone is still using Twitter.