At 50% they can do $4129 for a $650k

That’s a MASSIVE stretch for a typical family of 4 on your average income scenario, Once you factor in all the utils, maintenance… the $400 to $500/month property taxes, a $650/month car payment (an average family has a car payment)… and the incredibly high cost of food… they will be well over stretched at a 50%.

But to me I don’t think this bubble is going to see houses drop to the 300s like they used to be.

Is this a conclusion based on just direct impact, or did you consider the risk of people trying to bail out of a perceived-collapsing market in fear of an ever more challenging monthly payment?

I’d agree if you said it’d be difficult to even guess at the exact effects if people started panic-selling houses to unload on income properties to limit their risk - my own family was caught in that in the early '80s Calgary market and we’ve never recovered - but is there a nod to the potential for that slippage in your conclusions?

Plenty of big, big funds have massive exposure to short sellers

DRS GME to stop global financial crime