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12 points

Wagner has just lost their head, I wonder if anyone inside the company is still able to take over, or if the Russian army will just assimilate or disappear them.

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10 points
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The Russian Military won’t be able to “disappear” or assimilate Wagner. The situation on the African Continent entirely prevents it; Wagner needs to be there or a shit ton of $$$ will be lost and Russia cannot use regular / uniformed Russian soldiers for those…activities.

It’s easy to forget because of Prigozhin’s long association with Putin and the War in Ukraine but Wagner has a power base along with income streams that are entirely separate from Russia. They are truly a trans-national Mercenary group.

“The West” may take this opportunity to delete them but that probably wouldn’t happen until after the reaction from Prigozhin’s death has settled down. Wouldn’t want to keep them from Marching on Moscow again after all.

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4 points

I thought there would be an obvious head of the hydra, but since the other head of the PMC was also on that plane, Wagner is shook, unless, in some alternate reality where Wagner is more competent than other Russian organizations, they have procedures for this scenario.

Personally, if I was in charge of “my group” getting paid to do something in a part of the world away from Russia, I’d just remain under contract. Mercenaries hold no allegiance, other than the contract. maybe I’d reform an administrative structure with the other chunks of Wagner, but I certainly don’t have the incentive to go back to Moscow.

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2 points

Russian strongmen culture does not tolerate well traitors.

Wagner mercs saw it first hand in prisons. Russian army saw it first had during the recruits mass-rape and torture nights.

Nobody is getting assimilated and they all know it.

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