God help them. The slaughter to come is probably beyond our imagining
Honestly, I think that you’re wrong on the possibility of material victory. This offensive has shown the world that Palestinian resistance is not dead and that they can stand up to deal a devastating blow. If they can disrupt Israel’s attempts to re-align various Arab nations, and if the hostages and threat of Hezbollah intervention can pre-empt a ground invasion in Gaza, then the resistance could make significant material concessions/gains. Depending on how the next few days go, then I think there’s a chance of reforging the broader pro-Palestinian coalition amongst the various countries of the Middle East, especially in light of the Saudi-Iran rapprochement. If changing the geopolitical alignment into one that’s much more favorable to the survival of the Palestinian people isn’t a material gain, than I don’t know what is.
There was clearly an incredible degree of effort and coordination to pull off an operation of this scale without alerting the Israeli security apparatus. I don’t think this operation is particularly irrational or feckless. It’s a gamble, but the alternative to action is a slow death.
devastating blow
They haven’t done that though. They’ve shown they’re capable of bloodying Israel’s nose. They’ve killed scores and taken a base, but Israel’s ability to wage a war against them has not been reduced one iota. This isn’t some distant colony half a world away were a big psychological victory is enough to cause a pull-back. They’re right on the border, and are treated as an imminent security threat by Israel, so in order to prevent them from waving war you have to actually reduce their ability to, not just their desire.
if the hostages and threat of Hezbollah intervention can pre-empt a ground invasion in Gaza,
Which, if you know anything about Israeli governments, especially right wing ones, you know has a 0% chance of being effective. They’ve killed their own men before to avoid this. A ground invasion is absolutely coming.
They haven’t done that though. They’ve shown they’re capable of bloodying Israel’s nose. They’ve killed scores and taken a base, but Israel’s ability to wage a war against them has not been reduced one iota. This isn’t some distant colony half a world away were a big psychological victory is enough to cause a pull-back. They’re right on the border, and are treated as an imminent security threat by Israel, so in order to prevent them from waving war you have to actually reduce their ability to, not just their desire.
No, it’s more than that. They’re demonstrating that Israel is weaker than ever, both militarily and domestically. Just compare 2021 and right now. In 2021, the iron dome was partially effective as a countermeasure against rockets (although the fact that it was only partially effective and not have a “95% interception rate” was itself a victory). But now, the iron dome is completely out of the picture, mostly misfiring and being useless since the Palestinians are no longer relying exclusively on rockets. In 2021, there wasn’t much ground troops from the Palestinians while now, they are merking Israeli soldiers at military bases and commandeering Israeli tanks. At the geopolitical front, Israel’s allies are weaker than before while the Palestinians’ allies are stronger than before. The French is getting chased out of the Sahel and the much-anticipated counteroffensive in Ukraine turned out to be a dud. Now is the time to strike. In terms of weapons, I didn’t remember much drone use by the Palestinians in 2021, but now drones are everywhere, blowing up tanks and merking Israeli soldiers. Israeli domestic politics is more of a clusterfuck right now than in 2021. There will of course be a rallying behind the flag, but that domestic unity will complete crumble when hostilities end, which will further weaken Israel and set the stage for another Palestinian offensive. Israeli propaganda game is also weaker compared with 2021, mostly because they got caught off guard and 2021 punctured much of their PR.
There’s a qualitative leap between what we saw in 2021 and what we’re seeing in 2023. Even the Israeli response was harsher in 2021 with more bombed buildings, bombed hospitals, and bombed cemeteries within the same time frame than right now. Why? Because Israel is weaker in 2023 than 2021.
Even the Israeli response was harsher in 2021 with more bombed buildings, bombed hospitals, and bombed cemeteries within the same time frame than right now. Why? Because Israel is weaker in 2023 than 2021.
Israel has initiated a full mobilization and is about to launch a ground invasion. Maybe, at the end of all the suffering and death on the Palestinians, they’ll be a better position and that fact may be worth celebrating, but the only thing absolutely certain right now is that you’re going to see somewhere between 10,000 and 100,000 dead Palestians at the end of this, so the score is definitively bad at this stage, and there is no cause for celebration.
The Easter Uprising ended up with pretty much everyone dead. There was no military victory. The Brits bombed out the area and executed everyone they could. But it didn’t stop with the Easter Uprising, it shifted the narrative and galvanized more of the population. It made them feel like they actually had chance again. I’d say they were on the border of the British Empire still quite at its peak as well. Modern military tech might have changed but the psychological effects can’t be written off whole cloth a day into what’s actually happening.
The UK didn’t view Ireland as an existential security threat like Israel does with it’s neighbors (or say like Russia does with Ukraine).
This is already being compared to Pearl Harbor, which if you recall, ended with millions of dead Japanese (and even then Japan was not viewed as an existential threat). I don’t think it especially likely here, but you have already seen how the western propaganda machine can rewrite not just genocide but wholesale population extermination as being justified on spurious claims of ‘self-defense’.
Look, if I’m wrong and if turns out that this does improve things for the Palestinians celebrate that, then. But maybe put away the champagne until the bodies are counted.
