The report is absolutely scathing. Some choice quotes:
But when the next crisis came, both the US and the governments of Europe fell back on old models of alliance leadership. Europe, as EU high representative for foreign affairs Josep Borrell loudly lamented prior to Russia’s invasion, is not really at the table when it comes to dealing with the Russia-Ukraine crisis. It has instead embarked on a process of vassalisation.
But “alone” had a very specific meaning for Scholz. He was unwilling to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine unless the US also sent its own main battle tank, the M1 Abrams. It was not enough that other partners would send tanks or that the US might send other weapons. Like a scared child in a room full of strangers, Germany felt alone if Uncle Sam was not holding its hand.
Europeans’ lack of agency in the Russia-Ukraine crisis stems from this growing power imbalance in the Western alliance. Under the Biden administration, the US has become ever more willing to exercise this growing influence.
What is wrong in my interpretation there of the war goal then?
I never said anything about annexation of the whole in the legal sense, I said they wanted to install a puppet regime. Yet another Yanukovich, though this time with military backing because as in Belarus, the people provably don’t like Kremlin puppets (irrespective of native language). Annexation would come later, in the fullness of time, at the appropriate juncture, when noone is looking. Or via the Union State, just as in the USSR where the different SSRs were nominally independent.
If you want Russian impressions, try NFKRZ on youtube, currently in Georgian exile. For analysis, Vlad Vexler (CW: trained philosopher), also there, long time in UK exile. For general Ukraine stuff, raw interviews, boots on the ground journalism Dylan Bourns, also youtube.
Oh sorry, I didn’t mean to implied you suggested that their plan was annexation, but rather that the general war goal was to topple the Ukrainian govt instead of just keeping the current regions, which was the official war goal from the very beginning. None of the words I’ve found coming directly from the Kremlin seem to support such notion. Apparently Ukraine has already conceded to all but the land demands for an year now. If those demands are all met, is there any reason to believe Russia would escalate the conflict? Remember, this discussion started because of my disagreement with your following statement on the grounds that Russia doesn’t seem intent on controlling any more than the currently annexed areas.
Russia can’t even fucking match Ukraine which is being drip-fed surplus.
Apparently Ukraine has already conceded to all but the land demands for an year now.
That stuff is off the table. Initially Ukraine was willing to say “leave us the hell alone, stop occupying our territory, and we won’t join NATO” and such things, but given that Russia failed to leave them alone (and also can’t be trusted to use treaties as anything but toilet paper, see e.g. the Budapest memorandum), things like the Bucha massacre, hitting civilian infrastructure front, left and centre, everything, joining NATO is the only realistic way forward to security for Ukraine.
Even if Zelensky wanted to at this stage the people wouldn’t let him. The peace negotiations won’t be about territory but how many reparations (I’d guess in the form of mining concessions) Russia has to pay before sanctions are getting lifted.
Remember, this discussion started because of my disagreement with your following statement on the grounds that Russia doesn’t seem intent on controlling any more than the currently annexed areas.
Russia can’t even fucking match Ukraine which is being drip-fed surplus.
I still 110% stand by that sentence: Russia is on the retreat, its defensive lines are soon going to break, they have major logistical issues (thanks, Storm Shadow) and all that is not even including that after Prigoshin’s stunt the Kremlin is currently occupied with running around like headless chicken. That is: No, they’re not holding the occupied territories. Don’t let the apparent crawl of progress confuse you defensive lines are always hard to crack, the fast stuff comes once they’re breached and you can attack other parts of the line from behind.
You know the by now I think classic saying: First everyone thought that Russia had the second strongest army in the world, then we all realised that it has the second strongest army in Ukraine. European countries OTOH did build their capabilities based on the “second in the world” impression, and even if they fall a bit short based on that measure – Russia isn’t the second strongest army in the world.
Random point to give a sense of scale difference: Ukraine is keeping the Russian air force at stalemate (neither side has air dominance) with what 50 ageing MiGs (model “uses civilian GPS”), as well as ground-based systems (of which Russia also has plenty). The EU fields about 1700 jets, a vast number either modern or very upgraded, with capabilities specifically designed to kill ground-based air defence and establish air dominance. Good ole NATO doctrine: Hit so fast and hard and deep in the air that the opposing force is dealing with a ground front"line" consisting of all of their land area.
Russia is on the retreat, its defensive lines are soon going to break.
Considering you didn’t really push back on the basis of the claim that Russia has very little interest in anything but the formally annexed areas, I don’t see why this matters. If Russia needs only to hold onto what they annexed, it’s not on them to match the Ukrainian army, but on the Ukrainian army to match and surpass the Russian defence now. They have more or less been holding on the position for 1 whole year, despite sanctions and economic warfare. And they still mainly only lay claim to the annexed territories and demand Ukraine out of NATO (which I’m pretty sure is already a settled deal) in order for peace talks. So if the ball is in Ukraine’s court to push out the Russian forces off of those regions, I don’t think it’s accurate to say that “Russia can’t match Ukraine” on a stalemate with Russia on a favourable position for so long, with only now some sign of Ukraine retaking the territory. I don’t think it matters too much what speculation we have on what is “going to” happen for the sake of that argument. Also, for the sake of my curiosity, do you want this war to end as soon as possible?
