The report is absolutely scathing. Some choice quotes:
But when the next crisis came, both the US and the governments of Europe fell back on old models of alliance leadership. Europe, as EU high representative for foreign affairs Josep Borrell loudly lamented prior to Russia’s invasion, is not really at the table when it comes to dealing with the Russia-Ukraine crisis. It has instead embarked on a process of vassalisation.
But “alone” had a very specific meaning for Scholz. He was unwilling to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine unless the US also sent its own main battle tank, the M1 Abrams. It was not enough that other partners would send tanks or that the US might send other weapons. Like a scared child in a room full of strangers, Germany felt alone if Uncle Sam was not holding its hand.
Europeans’ lack of agency in the Russia-Ukraine crisis stems from this growing power imbalance in the Western alliance. Under the Biden administration, the US has become ever more willing to exercise this growing influence.
Ukraine is receiving a good chunk of material support from NATO and other NATO countries, which should count against the notion that Ukraine is single-handedly blocking some complete Russian advance.
Ukrainian manpower is, with NATO surplus materiel. Going up against even just the EU, not the whole of NATO, would involve going up against more than twice the current size of the Ukrainian army, and that’s without conscription, it’s all professional soldiers. Well-equipped ones at that.
In Russia, in the meantime, well, Shoigu has some very nice villas, so do his generals. Not terribly useful in a war, though.
Since you like Paradox, it’s more like if Russia currently occupies the the war goal and is just waiting for the war score to go up while defending counter-offensives.
If you compare Russian vs. Ukrainian morale Russia’s war exhaustion was at like 50% the moment the three-day offensive failed. In Ukraine people were queuing at recruitment centres, the army didn’t have capacity to train that many people at once. Contrast Russia which wanted to conscript 300k people, upon which 700k (conservative estimate) fled the country. Many more would like to but don’t have the means. Russia is a big place if you want to vanish in the woods there’s pretty much nothing stopping you but your survival skills.
Has Russia ever denied the condition of free passage of Ukranians in the 4 Oblasts to the rest of Ukraine in case of a ceasefire?
Russia has been force-relocating people to filtration camps. They have abducted children. Give me one good reason to believe they’d grant freedom of movement.
Also, irrelevant: Those areas would still be under Russian rule. That’s imperialism and remember imperialism bad and must be opposed.
And why does Ukraine not evacuate all of their civilians who want no part in the war if they want to avoid such atrocities?
Because the Russian army would shoot at them. They also shoot at aid workers trying to bring supplies to people affected by the Nova Kakhovka dam breach while themselves not lifting a finger to help people.
But to bring out a more general point: None of this is your decision. Mine, neither, it’s just that my position aligns with what Ukrainians themselves want: Their country back, and Russia to fuck off. Had the three-day offensive succeeded Ukrainians would’ve started a partisan war, they’re tenacious bastards.
Also I find this whole “pacifism is when you roll over and let me kick you” line of thinking highly distasteful. No, maybe I want to break my fist on your skull when you fuck with me and my loved ones because отъебись и ёб твою мать.
Becoming rather rude are we?
Ukrainian manpower is, with NATO surplus materiel. Going up against even just the EU, not the whole of NATO, would involve going up against more than twice the current size of the Ukrainian army, and that’s without conscription, it’s all professional soldiers. Well-equipped ones at that.
Yes, but the point is not about “matching” the EU but only Ukraine. I’m not insisting on this line of thought about Europe and Russia fighting a fictional all out war, so I’d advise you to drop it as well. Instead focus on your first claim that “Russia can’t match Ukraine” and actually argue against what I have said there, instead of some anachronistic hypothetical. Russia has spent the last 1 year mostly occupying their claimed lands, despite the full mobilisation of Ukraine and their NATO arsenal and training, who is only now finally maybe making some headway. I would say that they have at least “matched” Ukraine there. They don’t need to invade the entirety of Ukraine because that was never their stated goal. It is okay to admit you were being hyperbolic there.
The rest, again, is tangential and beside the point of the argument over the “matching Ukraine so far” point. Valuable? Yes. But is not related to my original point. I’d rather you focused on the above rather than the following as this is getting too tangential into the morality of war.
Russia has been force-relocating people to filtration camps. They have abducted children. Give me one good reason to believe they’d grant freedom of movement.
So, it was never a demand from Ukraine at the negotiating table to stop those relocations or to allow inspections? If it was, did Russia never respond? If we are just assuming things rather than providing sources we can’t make much progress here.
Also, irrelevant: Those areas would still be under Russian rule. That’s imperialism and remember imperialism bad and must be opposed.
Not sure what you mean there. How exactly is it more imperialist for Russia to annex regions that have significant Russian and Ukrainian populations, but not for Ukraine to annex them back? Imperialism bad, sure, but if you define imperialism binarily you’re not gonna go very far considering how complex the question of ethnicity and self-determination is in border regions. If Ukraine somehow wins and joins NATO, this will also surely have imperialist repercussions as that organisation is the ultimate imperial bloc worldwide. So should Ukraine then avoid NATO because of a binary notion of imperialism?
Because the Russian army would shoot at them. They also shoot at aid workers trying to bring supplies to people affected by the Nova Kakhovka dam breach while themselves not lifting a finger to help people.
I don’t refer to evacuating civilians in occupied areas, but rather the rest of Ukraine under Ukrainian control. Men aged over 18 have been forbidden from leaving Ukraine. Families have to bend over backwards to reunite in the rest of Europe. If the lives of Ukrainian civilians is important (and I believe it is), the first priority should be relocating all those who don’t wish to participate in this war. And use all that NATO tech for that as well. Then we can think about more operations like counter-offensives.
But to bring out a more general point: None of this is your decision. Mine, neither, it’s just that my position aligns with what Ukrainians themselves want: Their country back, and Russia to fuck off. Had the three-day offensive succeeded Ukrainians would’ve started a partisan war, they’re tenacious bastards.
Not as individuals, yes. But you probably have a government that is very keen to support more Ukrainian war efforts but not so keen to support Ukrainian and Russian refugees fleeing the war. And this is an internet forum, so what I’m saying here is not directed only at you, so hopefully some people question this notion that we need more deaths to save some lives. Either way, this was all about pedantically correcting your statement implying that Ukraine has been overwhelmingly winning against a Russian offensive, which is not really the case.
Also I don’t recommend ever summing up a whole ethnic group as having a single position or tendency. You’ll find that some Ukrainians actually just want their basic necessities met wherever in the world they are. Others are furries. People are diverse.
Also I find this whole “pacifism is when you roll over and let me kick you” line of thinking highly distasteful. No, maybe I want to break my fist on your skull when you fuck with me and my loved ones because отъебись и ёб твою мать.
This is not about pacifism, it is about being pragmatic. Throwing in more soldiers to die has not proven effective at saving innocent Ukrainians. We’ve had 300 thousand dead now. The land is not people, and if you want to save people instead of land, you’ll have to accept some land losses. After a ceasefire, it’ll be much easier to negotiate human rights inspections and evacuate all Ukrainians who don’t wish to remain in the new Russian domains. But sticking stubbornly to some possible future in which the Russian forces are driven out through sheer willpower and NATO hardware does nothing to help those people right now. If some heads have to roll, sure, but how many heads, both Ukrainian and Russian, have to roll before we recognise that this is not really working?
So, it was never a demand from Ukraine at the negotiating table to stop those relocations or to allow inspections?
Are you fucking serious. “Was it ever a Ukrainian demand to stop the genocide of Ukrainian people”. Are you listening to yourself. Have you touched grass recently.
I don’t refer to evacuating civilians in occupied areas,
People who had it happening to them don’t call it “evacuation”. Evacuations also don’t tend to be by force, or end in internment camps.
You claim to be “oh so neutral” and yet you’re regurgitating Kremlin propaganda 1:1. I have no idea who you’re trying to convince, here.
This is not about pacifism, it is about being pragmatic. Throwing in more soldiers to die has not proven effective at saving innocent Ukrainians. We’ve had 300 thousand dead now.
That’s wounded, not killed. Killed we have about 70k Russians, maybe 20k Ukrainian soldiers. Not counting civilians (which are overwhelmingly Ukrainian, anyway).
Obviously, Russia throwing more soldiers into the grinder to die has not proven effective in advancing its war goals, so why aren’t they fucking off to their side of the border? This kind of logic always cuts both ways and you applying it to one side only betrays your bias.
If some heads have to roll, sure, but how many heads, both Ukrainian and Russian, have to roll before we recognise that this is not really working?
“We” doesn’t matter. Ukraine will fight until it’s free, Russia until it’s exhausted. That’s what’s going to happen, that’s how war works, no matter your preference, war is and will always be unaesthetic: It continues until the parties have an agreement on what can be achieved by both sides, and with Russia being unrealistic (because jingoist and superiority complex and валяй, ебёна мать!1) it’s dragging out. Russia’s mind about its own goals cannot currently be changed by any other means but on the battlefield, that’s why that’s where negotiations take place.
Becoming rather rude are we?
I subscribe to the same philosophy as Linus Torvalds in these matters. You can rest assured that I’m not writing in anger.
1 You probably don’t get the reference: Pushkin, The Wagon of Life.
Please no needless rudeness, thancc. Also you forgot to respond to the absolute only thing I actually care about (the “Russia can’t match Ukraine” while Russia controls their war goals contradiction), while talking a lot about a bunch tangential stuff I explicitly mentioned is besides the point. Could you properly address that bit rather than focusing on unrelated morality questions?
Are you fucking serious. “Was it ever a Ukrainian demand to stop the genocide of Ukrainian people”. Are you listening to yourself. Have you touched grass recently.
I have, just this morning in fact. The blades of grass sadly don’t bring news about European wars. You might not be aware, but the world outside cares very little about this one war. Please answer the question or ignore it, but there’s no need to be this aggressive for a basic curious question. If you care so much about Ukraine, you could provide the info you have rather than attack me for asking. And if you think this answer is so obvious, instead provide me a link.
People who had it happening to them don’t call it “evacuation”. Evacuations also don’t tend to be by force, or end in internment camps.
You seem to misunderstand what I said there. I am not advocating for the Russian forces to “evacuate” Ukrainians from the warzone, but rather for the Ukraine government to evacuate all civilians who can’t or don’t wish to contribute to the war to their western allies in Europe. That is not happening right now, and could possibly save many lives. Could even use those NATO transports. It’s not good for the war cause, yes, but it would save lives.
You claim to be “oh so neutral” and yet you’re regurgitating Kremlin propaganda 1:1. I have no idea who you’re trying to convince, here.
No idea what that is about. Sadly I don’t know Russian and get most of my news from popular European and Unitedstadian outlets, so I find it hard to believe I’m getting it from the Kremlin. If that is just a knee-jerk reaction to the previous misunderstanding, I apologise I guess.
That’s wounded, not killed. Killed we have about 70k Russians, maybe 20k Ukrainian soldiers. Not counting civilians (which are overwhelmingly Ukrainian, anyway).
Thank you for the correction. In either case, it’s a lot of people dead, specially on the Russian side. I think the point still stands there.
Obviously, Russia throwing more soldiers into the grinder to die has not proven effective in advancing its war goals, so why aren’t they fucking off to their side of the border? This kind of logic always cuts both ways and you applying it to one side only betrays your bias.
I don’t see any Russians here advocating for the continuation of the war, do you? If they were I’d equally push back at their ideas. But the reality here is that they control some regions, and kindly asking a military to forgo all of its conquests will mean that the war was for nothing. Meanwhile, Zelensky’s administration in conjunction with NATO seems intent on dragging this war out until either Russia loses all conquests or every able-bodied Ukrainian is dead. Now which sounds more viable as a peace talk demand, for Russia to forgo every conquest they’ve spent Russian lives, labour and capital on, and also pay a bunch of reparations on top of their sanctions, or for Ukraine to accept its current de facto domain and work within it to safeguard the lives of Ukrainians in all lands without having to send more troops on counter-offensive after counter-offensive? Neither is a pleasant choice, but there are no pleasant choices in war.
“We” doesn’t matter. Ukraine will fight until it’s free, Russia until it’s exhausted. That’s what’s going to happen, that’s how war works, no matter your preference, war is and will always be unaesthetic: It continues until the parties have an agreement on what can be achieved by both sides, and with Russia being unrealistic (because jingoist and superiority complex and валяй, ебёна мать!1) it’s dragging out. Russia’s mind about its own goals cannot currently be changed by any other means but on the battlefield, that’s why that’s where negotiations take place.
And then I guess we circle back to the old point where Russia has already pretty much achieved its goal and is just fighting to keep what land they grabbed at this point. I think it’s just a matter of opinion on what is “unrealistic”, as I also find it very unrealistic to believe some invading army would just give up on its conquests, specially if they believe their own rhetoric (and I’m pretty sure a bunch of them do) of trying to prevent NATO encroachment and protecting the Russians in the now annexed lands. Could the same case for “unrealistic” not be applied to Ukrainians who demand such capitulation? If “Ukraine will fight until it’s free”, it’s safe to assume that the war will go on until either every able-bodied Ukrainian (who hasn’t fled illegally) is dead or victory is achieved. I would certainly not support some government in marshal law that puts in practice such a plan.
I subscribe to the same philosophy as Linus Torvalds in these matters. You can rest assured that I’m not writing in anger.
Linus Torvalds is famous for his C programming skills, not his communication capabilities. It would be less of a waste of both our times if you spent your words on information rather than petty insults.
You probably don’t get the reference: Pushkin, The Wagon of Life.
Sorry, I don’t read European poetry. can I interest you in some Funk?
