ya know… i can accept that I underestimated Lukashenko, but the swiftness of his response combined with the stunning and peaceful 180 by Prigo… you must admit, it’s very suspicious. The clockwork timing of it all suggests something more complicated going on. This all feels like theater.
Will you reassess this thought in 3-4 weeks if/when nothing else happens? I think it’s extremely unlikely that this is a grand scheme and that the reason this is being pushed comes from the fact that they have to keep the idea alive that Russia could collapse at any moment. If it isn’t a grand scheme then its failure forces the acceptance that Russia isn’t going to collapse and that the war is therefore entirely unwinnable, so it is much easier to present this as not having been a real coup/rebellion at all in order to keep that belief alive.
who is this mysterious “they”? And how did “they” get Prigozhin and Lukashenko to do this for “them” for the reasons you say? you claim it’s not some “grand scheme” yet, in the next breath, you claim another?
If it isn’t a grand scheme then its failure forces the acceptance that Russia isn’t going to collapse and that the war is therefore entirely unwinnable.
And how in the world do you get from here to there? Because all i see now is a fractured and demoralized military that’s lost all momentum, a weakened Putin, a shocked Russian public, and Prigozian and Lukashenko (and who knows who else) lurking in the wings. A lot has already changed, and uncertainty abounds.
Oh I apologise I forget sometimes everyone here isn’t a marxist now after the reddit waves, marxists would just pick up the intention from context and keeping up with news via parties and groups they’re in. The “they” here is generally western aligned think tanks and forces. In particular the Atlantic Council which is largely responsible for a lot of US policy has been pushing it around in the media recently.
And how in the world do you get from here to there? Because all i see now is a fractured and demoralized military that’s lost all momentum, a weakened Putin, a shocked Russian public, and Prigozian and Lukashenko (and who knows who else) lurking in the wings. A lot has already changed, and uncertainty abounds.
A marxist understanding of the war in Ukraine is as a war that was created by the west, led by the US, that benefits quite a significant number of MIC forces with large influence over US policy. Part of the narrative that maintains support for the war is the ongoing belief that Russia can be defeated, and the method of Russian defeated that has been drummed up is “Russia will collapse” as everyone with any sense can see that there is no military means of victory. If the “Russia will collapse” narrative is destroyed by the reality of a rebellion demonstrating massive support that makes any collapse obviously impossible then the entire house of cards that has been constructed falls down. Thus the result is pushing in the media the notion that it wasn’t a real rebellion but instead a grand scheme by devious clever russians.
If you have questions about how the left interprets the war I’m happy to answer.