Let’s look on the bright side. The people voted this way (quite significantly) so they must be seeing something positive there. I already know all the downsides so let’s discuss the upsides.

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0 points

All jokes aside, I’m looking forward to criminals actually facing consequences for their actions, that’s one policy Labour utterly screwed up on.

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11 points
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Which criminals though.

Wage thieves? Polluters? Tax evaders? Or just the poor ones?

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2 points

You joke, but people are in favour of all criminals being punished. That’s not even a good straw man.

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10 points

This is all very well and good, but the evidence shows harsher prison sentences does little to reduce crime rates.

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3 points
3 points

I’m definitely saving this post for later, thanks for the quality sources.

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2 points

I’ll need to give those a read tomorrow. And possibly save them for the next time someone spouts nonsense at me.

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1 point
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I posted a new Zealand article that was easier to read, the study the article drew it’s conclusions from was this study by the U.S. Department of Justice.

  1. I can’t access this article to investigate further, but I will point out is from the 1980, which is over 40 years ago. I will also point out that their main concern was concerned with “the rational image of man in utilitarian thought, the philosophical framework in which modern deterrence theory is grounded.” which does not sound very data driven.

  2. This is definitely an interesting article. After reading further, it appears to show a statistically significant relationship between longer prison sentences and reduced recidivism. This effect is really only shown above 5 years, and specifically above 10 years. I did not see in this study where they tracked increased punishment for the same crime. Simply put, they showed that criminals who commit serious crimes and are incarcerated from 5 to more than 10 years will recommit fewer crimes than criminals incarcerated for less time. This doesn’t suggest increasing punishments for lesser crimes, unless you want to lock ram raiders up for over 10 years.

  3. This study does not imply at all that increased punishments lead to lower crime. It is talking about considerations and assumptions made when making studies to inform policy, and suggesting that (to paraphrase) it’s more complicated than one single thing.

  4. “In line with previous research, we find that detection plays a consistent role in reducing acquisitive crime, but that severity of sanctions is ambiguous.”

They do not claim any certainly over decreased crime rates, and in fact say that the data is “ambiguous”.

  1. In the US, harsher punishments began in the 70s during Nixon’s “harsh on crime” mentality. Actual crime rates didn’t begin to drop until the 90s clearly showing at best the most tenuous link between these two things.

Here’s a bonus article from Australia.

Of course there will be the odd study that shows a slight drop in crime, but overwhelmingly they do not. By far the biggest effect is post-prison rehabilitation.

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3 points

Longer sentences do not function as a deterrent, that’s true. It does, however, mean offenders cannot commit violent crimes, and in general be a menace to society, from behind bars.

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4 points

If you’re saying National will punish violent offenders more than they are, but keep the current incarceration levels, then I’d agree with that sentiment.

Of course there is the problem of completely understaffed prisons at the moment, but that is a problem regardless of the colour of the tie of the PM.

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1 point

What happens to their kids?

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