Put up or shut time for Braverman. If she cannot make an impact now then her time is gone. It looks very much like a pivotal point for the Tories. Are they going to go full right, or remove the power of those that have poisoned all the narrative that emanates from the Tories.
She won’t become the next Tory leader. She’s fifth popular amongst ordinary Tory party members, behind Mourdant, Cleverly, Mercer and Badenoch and she has approval rating according to IPSOS of 16% and YouGov of 15%. I doubt she even has enough support to get 54 letters to the 1922 committee.
5th popular of the half dozen or so that ran for leadership, much lower in the whole party.
No, those stats are from last month and are the Tory parties own research into ordinary (not just MPs) members.
That was when they had a chance to elect Truss. Braverman is lining herself up to be the candidate of the right next time and, if she manages it, and the party doesn’t manage to bring about another coronation a la Sunak, she will win.
No, those stats are from last month.
The Tories are down to 350 sitting MPs. This means that the 15% threshold is now 53 not 54 anymore. Loose another 4 MPs and that figure is only 52 letters required.
There has reputedly been 20 letters handed in for weeks now. That would leave 33 additional letters, if the rumours are true. Unfortunately those 20 letters will be from people who already support Braverman’s narrative. I would love to see a VONC thrown into the mix. Cameron would be over moon also I guess. It would deflect from the crap that is heading in his direction this week. Greensill is rearing its ugly head for him, and rightly so.
I’d be surprised if she did meet the threshold, but even if she does there’s not a chance she’ll get enough ordinary members to vote for her. I think she’d be wise (not her strong suit admittedly) to bide her time, wait for the Tory party to get gutted at the next GE and capitalise on the anger of party members to win then.