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Top clubs typically overperform their xG and xGa (and thus their xPts) by quite a bit because they have the best strikers and keepers. So what Leverkusen is doing is actually in line with the quality of their squad, it’s Bayern which is actually underperforming due to defensive lapses in key moments. This notion is also confirmed by Bayern’s fantastic GD.

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According to Understat, Bayern is also overperforming

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By 1.42 points, which is perfectly normal. Like I said, top clubs typically overperform their xPoints by a bit. Leverkusen, by contrast, is overperforming by a whooping 7.72 points according to understat.

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