I am still not sure there will be a “major Russian offensive” in the way that most people are imagining it. I think they will simply continue to incrementally dial up the pressure at all points along the line until the ability of the Kiev regime forces to mount a cohesive defense collapses. I think this is the smart play as Russia is only getting stronger while Ukraine and the collective West are getting weaker, so it’s only a matter of time until a tipping point is reached.

Then again I might be completely wrong and the Russians could decide to go for a big flashy offensive just a month from now. Or a year. Who knows. The whole point in a war is keeping your enemy guessing and not telegraphing if, when or where you’re going to attack. And that means that casual observers like us sitting on the sidelines are also incapable of predicting with any certainty what they will do.