US economy would collapse overnight without China, thinking that US has some sort of upper hand here is the height of comedy. US doesn’t produce much of anything today, its industrial base is around 11% of its GDP, and there is no substitute for China which is central to most supply chains.
China needs buyers. If the US stopped buying from China, it would be the same situation in China. Their economies are so intertwined that a war between them, even just financially, would ruin both
China has plenty of buyers, that’s the whole point of BRI and BRICS. Literally all of the world constitutes China’s buyers with US being a small portion of that. China would be hurt by an economic war with US, but US would be completely devastated by it because US depends on essential products and commodities it can’t get anywhere else. Meanwhile, people thought Russia would be ruined economically once being cut out of western economic system and here we are with even IMF now projecting growth for their economy. Incidentally, trade between China and Russia has already jumped to over 200 billion if you want to see an example of China replacing US with a friendly trading partner.
I want to point out that the fraction of imports/exports between the USA and China is roughly symmetric (by monetary value). In 2022, about 16% of China’s exports were to the USA; in 2021, about 17% of the USA’s imports were from China.
That being said, you’re probably making a valid point about which items are flowing, not just the raw value of goods.
Also, I would think it’s generally easier for a producer to find new buyers of what it’s already producing, than for a buyer to find a new producer for what it needs.
Edit to add: If we look at the ratio “Exports/Imports”, we have about 0.3 for the USA with China, and we have about 3.3 for China with the USA.
I think the point has been lost. The US not dealing with Russia hasn’t impacted the US beyond fuel prices. The US not dealing with China would result in some commodities becoming more expensive and production being further moved out of China, at which point the price of commodities would come back down.
India wants to be the next China, and they hate China. That’s where most US technical and manufacturing has been moving.
The US economy wouldn’t collapse without China, nor China without the US. They are so heavily intertwined economically that both countries avoid trouble with the other because the impact would be enormous.
China has manufacturing power. US has trade alliances and military power. Neither can overcome the other in simple terms.
If the US pulled out of China, the pressure on their allies to stop business with China would be the halting of sales of arms and support. Those F35’s require specific maintenance supplied by the US.
If China pulled out of the US, the pressure would be on US soil to bring prices of commodities down.
China is a cheap source of labor to the US, but so is India. Much of US tech support and manufacturing is moving to India anyhow because much of the educated population speaks English due to British colonialism. Over time, things would equalize and the new status quo would emerge. NEITHER country would cease to exist, and neither would acknowledge the growing pains.
US economy was in shock when a single ship got stuck in Suez Canal, that’s how fragile it is. If China cut US off, then most necessities of life would disappear overnight, and there wouldn’t be any readily available replacements US could source quickly. Meanwhile, China is far less dependent on US than the other way around. China doesn’t get anything essential from US, and trade imbalance massively favors China. China can absolutely survive without US.
US has no military power over most of Eurasia or Middle East at this point, and it’s not even able to compete with Russia militarily as it turns out. China’s industrial power absolutely dwarfs both US and Russia, so US would have absolutely no hope if it ever came to a war with China. You don’t have to take it from me either, here’s Pentagon freaking out over this https://archive.ph/YOV9X
If China pulled out of the US, the pressure would be on US soil to bring prices of commodities down.
You can’t just make industry appear out of thin air in the real world. It takes years to build factories, train workers, and establish supply chains. You can’t just print money and make these things magically appear.
China is a cheap source of labor to the US, but so is India.
That’s wrong again. China is not a cheap source of labour, it’s a technological power with well ironed out supply chains and skilled workers. India isn’t anywhere close in terms of technological development. Here are just a couple of recent examples of that
- https://9to5mac.com/2023/02/14/iphone-casings-produced-in-india/
- https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/11/tech/india-foxconn-exit-vedanta-chip-joint-venture-intl-hnk/index.html
US wouldn’t cease to exist, but it would have a massive economic crash and it would never recover to its current level of power.
You said it perfectly: the massive amounts of imports to the US from China are a driving force of China’s economy. The US has been in steady decline for two decades. China is on the rise because of their massive exports to the US and the EU. Without those, China tanks, same as the US. The US will consume, and China will produce. That is the stats quo.
US weapons are steamrolling the Russian army, without any US solders operating them. Ukraine is still gaining ground daily, on every front. Do you truly believe the US couldn’t roll through Russia the way Wagner did two weeks ago with only 25,000 troops? I said it earlier but I’ll say it again: Wagner is/was proud of the fact they used western arms and not Russian or Chinese. To say the US couldn’t take Russia is naive at best, downright false at worst.
China’s industrial power absolutely dwarfs both US and Russia, so US would have absolutely no hope if it ever came to a war with China.
Your hypothetical disregards the existence of NATO and Indo-Pacific alliances. Article 5: An attack on one is an attack on all. War between China and the US would be China Russia and N Korea vs the world. Be serious here. Do you think China by itself, or China with it’s “big” 3 allies could take Australia and the south Pacific states, nearly all of Europe (including states like Poland who are foaming at the mouth to inflict suffering on Russia), India, Japan, S Korea, and DEFINITELY the Philippines and Taiwan. Let’s not forget the massive military base on Guam.
But let’s dig deeper: the US has the most aircraft carriers in world, the most veterans who have seen combat, the most ballistic missile subs, the largest air force, the most military bases, and the US has bases in Korea and Japan for exactly the situation you described. China currently has no capability to project it’s military onto US soil. They wouldn’t be able to cross the Pacific, whereas the US is already in Asia. China is not good to it’s neighbors, and many have historical grievances as well as ongoing territorial disputes (off the top of my head: India and Philippines). War between China and the US would be WW3, which both sides are actively avoiding. Don’t say things like “US would have absolutely no hope if it ever came to a war with China” when you don’t seem to grasp that it would be China vs the entire planet, and the entire planet is better equipped and on their doorstep.
No, what has actually happened is that there are two world superpowers instead of one, each ruling their part of the globe, each dependant on the other to not drop the facade so they have an “enemy” to blame at home. To say either single country could take on the other is probably the worst argument you tried to make
