Azerbaijan’s victory in the 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh led to a new reality of Azerbaijani control over the region. However, tensions continued as issues around detainees, borders and Karabakh’s autonomy remained unresolved. Russia had peacekeepers in Karabakh but its influence waned after invading Ukraine. Seeing an opportunity, Azerbaijan launched a new offensive in September 2023, seizing full control of Karabakh with little international opposition. The conflict is shaped by imperial interests of Russia and Turkey in the region as well as the pursuit of national capitalist states. It has perpetuated violence and ethnic cleansing, fueling hatred between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. Internally, the war has consolidated Aliyev’s authoritarian rule in Azerbaijan and justified suppressing opposition.

As new forms of policing and militarization continue, the region appears headed towards a grim future of perpetual war, not peace.

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