While I agree with the overall sentiment, that thread as too many data scientist moments. You can’t just look at a single war in history with very different dynamics and go “the threshold must be around 3%” and expect to be taken seriously. There are some good points (such as the Ukrainian society being overall comprised of older people), but the stacking of speculations to make bold predictions doesn’t help those good points.
Is it? We’ve been hearing the same “AFU is gonna collapse by spring/summer/next year” since the bloody thing had begun. Still there. And is also getting propped up by foreign “mercenaries” and “volunteers”.
That’s why I’m almost certain that the Ukraine War is mostly NATO troops undercover vs Russia.
If that were the case, wouldn’t the constituent member states have an uptick in deaths? This would be noticeable. Even if it were hidden in the numbers, the families of those who died would be informed, and there’s no way to keep that under wraps at that point.
Counterpoint of sorts: the now infamous Wagner PMC (mercenaries) have been operating in Africa for several years, close to a decade AFAIK. There’s been plenty of claims regarding their casualties, some likely exaggerated, some likely true. And yet their activities remained mostly hidden from the public eye. Mind you, Russia doesn’t have that big of a population nowadays, maybe half that of USA. And most of it is elderly, so losing a significant amount of “fighting age” men would surely be noticeable. With NATO, you get casualties spread thin across multiple countries. A hundred from France here, a couple hundred from Germany there. That’s basically traffic accident statistics
Mfs gonna waste entire population
Difficult, they will send anyone who can carry a rifle, before thinking about negotiating a peace, the government of Ukraine has no qualms about sending its own population to its death.
Supplementary reading: https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/the-jig-is-up a summary of where the broader picture of the conflict is currently at
It’s an interesting read. But the nearly complete lack of citations makes it difficult to take seriously. The media reporting on this war has been so incredibly bad that I have no idea what’s going on there. He makes a tonne of claims about details of the war with complete self assuredness. I would be very interested in his sources of facts so that I could vet them for myself.
Yeah that’s a fair criticism. Still this is not supposed to be that kind of rigorous analysis, it’s just a blog post, an opinion piece if you will, but i would say from what i’ve observed so far that it’s pretty accurate, at least in presenting what has happened so far and where we are at. Where i am a bit more skeptical is with the predictions which may perhaps turn out to be a bit too optimistic, but i don’t know, we’ll have to wait and see.
