I was wondering if a VPN would add any kind of security or privacy if one is connecting to a host with a client/browser that supports DNS over HTTPS and that host supports encrypted client hello. Is there a way for the ISP or anything in between to shape traffic or even know what is being accessed? The only thing that should be visible is traffic between two IP addresses right?
The DNS traffic might be encrypted but that doesn’t mean that other protocols are. A VPN tunnel encrypts all traffic passing through regardless of protocol.
This is the correct answer. A VPN encrypts and obfuscates all your connections, not just the web browser.
If all you care about is hiding the websites you visit from your ISP, DNS over TLS is fine. But just remember that you’re bleeding data by using your real IP (ISP, geolocation, etc.). And any other connection, is just unabashedly, you.
To add to what the others have said, a VPN requires one end to authenticate to the other. Regular HTTP and DNS connections don’t.
If you need to access a service remotely, doing it over VPN requires the user to authenticate (to use the VPN).
If you simply expose the service publicly, even if the connection to it is encrypted, it doesn’t prevent random strangers from accessing it or trying to break in.
In this case, a VPN only offers obscuring that you are connecting to the dns over http end point.
That "traffic between two IP addresse"s is enough reason to use a VPN you trust.
Put it this way, bit torrent traffic can be encrypted and routed over standard ports to make it look like regular web traffic, so still “just traffic between two IP addresses” but you wouldn’t run that without a VPN, would you?