Yeah. The problem with predicting timeframes is that all these gradual, quantitative changes result in qualitative changes (that is, sudden fractures) which make it difficult to give estimates. The gradual march of NATO’s army eastward in their military offensive against Russia over the last three decades, conquering Eastern Europe as they went, led to the sudden faultline of Ukraine activating. That there might have been an event like this at some point, in some place, between Russia and NATO was perhaps predictable - but the time and place and result was not as predictable. Similarly, in Palestine, that there might have been some existential battle between the Zionists and the Palestinians might have been predicted, but the time and place was not so (regardless of how much Israel copes that they actually saw the attack coming), especially because Hamas didn’t even tell their closest allies they were going to attack in order to preserve the surprise element as much as possible.

In geology, there’s two dueling concepts of uniformitarianism and catastrophism. The first assumes that the natural world around us is formed by gradual, small-scale processes, like the erosion of a beach and the slow construction of a mountain range. The second assumes that instead, short, large and violent events are more important - a meteorite crashing into the Earth, or a supervolcano erupting, or a massive flood. While uniformitarianism pretty handily won the debate overall, it would be folly to say that occasional violent events haven’t been extremely important. The meteorite that ended the dinosaurs fundamentally changed the Earth’s biosphere, and was essentially totally disconnected from the Earth system. Even inside the Earth system, when Lake Agassiz in North America released its massive quantities of water into the ocean about 10,000 years ago, global sea levels rose relatively quickly by up to 10 feet and disrupted oceanic currents and possibly resulted in temporary cooling, with all the knock-on impacts that had on the Earth and humanity.

World events work similarly to geology, though obviously on a much smaller timeframe. The world, its nations and corporations chug on, day to day. Sudden events from both outside and within the system - sometimes predicted in advance - can have massive and fairly unpredictable impacts and lead to major changes. The United States may not have been able to take its position as the quasi-hegemon if not for the World Wars, and while a great European conflict was predictable beforehand, all the effects it would go on to have - the fall of the Russian Empire and the rise of the USSR; massive changes in the Middle East; the eventual end of colonialism; etc - were much, much less predictable. If you were in 1910 and decided to merely plot the gradual effects that you expected capitalism to have on the world and said “Well, according to my model, capitalism will end in 2142 due to the tendency of the rate of profit to fall and an inability for imperialists to continue governing the world. It seems that the British Empire’s apex will continue for another few decades and perhaps steadily decline all the way to the 2100s, based on comparisons with the Roman Empire…” then you would be mighty shocked when just 10 years later, Europe was on the brink of a communist revolution.

So, for that reason, I find time estimates rather unhelpful. Like many others, I have talked about how the US probably has a few decades left as an empire - and that might very well be true - but this is assuming a gradual decline without sudden events. If you’d have told me just in 2020 that the US of three years from then would be unable to protect shipping routes through the Red Sea from Yemen despite having two/three aircraft carriers and various other naval assets throughout the region, I would have said that you’re bonkers. If you’d have told me that Russia was almost singlehandedly taking on the combined might of NATO in a proxy war and not only winning, but winning very convincingly, I would have said “There’s no way that they’re actually fighting without nukes dropping, and how could Russia resist NATO anyway, given all their problems?” If you’d have told me pre-October 7th that Israel would very soon be in the worst crisis in its history due to mostly the efforts of Gaza, I would have been like “Well, that’s a nice thought, but we can’t really expect the population of a concentration camp to be able to resist their prison guards to that extent.” God knows what sudden events will happen this year.

i think historians in the future will consider the conflicts in syria or ukraine the start of WW3

I think it’s possible, but I don’t think it’s likely.

World War isn’t in the Global South’s interests. Multipolarity is giving them opportunity to prosper.

World War might be the last option left for preserving Western Hegemony, but the decision on their side won’t be made in the interests of preserving Western Hegemony, it’ll be made in the interests of the capitalist class that controls it. And for them, war is a gamble. They’ll only gamble if they don’t see any other way.

And tbh I think this is why Israel is going off-script. They know the USA’s empire is shrinking, they know that the USA won’t be able to afford propping up a puppet in West Asia for much longer, and they know how the USA treats allies that have outlived their usefulness. The Zionists are gambling because they know they don’t get to keep their Zion if things continue to progress peacefully towards decolonization.

I think a revolution of sorts is visibly underway, though it’s not necessarily, strictly, a proletarian revolution (it does involve it in many regions, and it paves the way for it in other parts of the world).

It’s a revolution of nations against the system of Anglo-European, white supremacist, imperialist empire and hegemony- a revolution that, in the face of both the unparalleled evil of the crackerverse, and the empire’s decline- is seeing disenfranchised, exploited, and divided nations from across the global south and (parts of) eastern Europe- of all sorts, communists, liberals, Islamists, monarchies, even the proto-fascists like the Hindutvas- coming together for one beautiful common goal, to free the world (and primarily themselves) once and for all from the scourge of humanity that is western imperialism.

Whether world war will come out of that is another matter. I don’t really dare say one way or another, TBH- I’d like to hope things can reach a point where the west can be properly contained and their present state institutions dissolved if need be (IMO it will be needed for the west to ever rejoin the rest of humanity). I’m not so optimistic as to say that’s how things will go, though.

Maybe a war first and then a revolution. Or a revolution during the war.

If 2023 has shown us anything it is that the rest of the world can and will stand up against the West. And that The West isn’t the unbeatable force the pretend to be. With this much tension happening in the world, with Palestine and its surrounding allies, China again saying reunification with Taiwan is inevitable, China’s BRI in Africa and the rise of BRICS and of course Russia I do think we will see war between the west and others at some point soon.

Because with the rise of fascism in Europe and the US I don’t think they will go out without a fight.