I like the part where the author completely ignores the devastation in Taiwan were a war to erupt over it.
lol “We don’t want to live in a world where the bullies take whatever they want.” Says the bullies that has spent over a century taking whatever they want. This feels like them trying to prepare the US people for a massive loss they know is very likely. Then frame it as a “we HAD to do something to fight off big bad see see pee.” When if it weren’t for US bullshit Taiwan would be closer to a peaceful reunification if not already unified by now.
The US got less than 18 months before the dreaded 2025 estimation of the US loosing any hope of going up against China’s military. They are gonna beat those drums harder and harder. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were already too late. China has already beat the west to hypersonic missiles. The J35 is an actual function stealth fighter compared to the F35 glorified paperweight. The US Navy heavily reliant on aircraft carriers which are primarily only good for harassing small under developed nations with not way to fight back. Shit they can’t even send a sub to threaten them without accidentally crashing it and limping home.
Incredible lack of self awareness there to talk about bullies doing whatever they want. And yeah, as I recall, KMT was in the process of talks with the mainland regarding peaceful reunification in 2014 when US ran the sunflower revolution. The deal was that Taiwan would remain autonomous and have a representative in the mainland government. Basically, it would’ve been effectively maintaining the status quo, but Taiwan would officially renounce any talks of separatism and join the official government.
Given how things are going for US in Ukraine, I think it’s pretty clear that US is in no position to take on China. US can’t even keep up with Russia in terms of industrial production, and China absolutely dwarfs Russia in that regard. The main thing Ukraine showed is that it’s industry and logistics that matter the most in a peer conflict. US would quickly run through its existing stocks trying to take on China, and then it would be completely fucked. Not only that, but as this article shows, a lot of supply chains Pentagon uses are ultimately dependent on China. In case of an open war, US would be cut off from many critical things it needs which would be catastrophic.
It looks like this is all finally starting to sink in for the people in the military and why we’re starting to see articles like this popping up. This article is basically an open admission that if push comes to shove then US will not gamble its military position defending Taiwan. Everybody in Taiwan needs to take note of this, because if they have any delusions that US would provide them with any meaningful aid then they’re absolutely delusional.
I imagine that the Ukraine experience will only harden this position within US military and the MIC. It’s already becoming clear that US military power is much more limited than people thought, and that will affect US weapons sales. Gonna be hard to peddle stuff like Patriot when it’s been shown to be completely ineffectual. US can still say that they haven’t used their most advanced weapons in Ukraine, so those are still viable. However, if they went up against China and got their asses handed to them that would definitively expose that the emperor has no clothes to the whole world. Hence, direct war with China or Russia has to be avoided at all costs.
Finally, it’s not possible to do what they’re doing in Ukraine in Taiwan because it’s an island. The west can pump weapons and supplies into Ukraine via the borders, but China will blockade the ports in Taiwan, and the only option to counter that is direct engagement. So, there’s no possibility to turn that into a proxy war.
I do think that this underselling the United States a little bit, if Amerikkka does decide to go directly to war with China it will actually mobilize its economy, which would help quite a bit. Of course, China would also probably mobilize its economy so I doubt the final outcome would be any different
They’d basically have to, but US will have two big problems there.
First, it’s going to be hard to convince the public that US actually has to go to a real war over Taiwan. When push comes to shove, people in US just don’t actually care about Taiwan that much. It’s one thing when US government fucks around the globe and there’s no perceptible change at home, it’s quite another to say that US has to go on a war footing because US has to fight over some small island most people in US couldn’t find on a map. I really can’t see that being possible politically, especially in the face of the Ukrainian debacle and a looming recession.
Second, US no longer has end to end domestic supply chains that it controls. Thanks to wonders of globalization, China has become a central piece to many supply chains US economy depends on including military production. This article was recently talking about the scale of the problem for US. In case of an open conflict, US would be immediately cut off from this and it would be an economic disaster. And of course, it’s pretty clear that US has no hope of keeping up with China in terms of actual military production either.
So, any fantasies US politicians might entertain about having a war with China are completely divorced from reality. While this kind of idiotic move might’ve been possible before Ukraine, I expect it’s going to be a a non starter now.
China has already beat the west to hypersonic missiles. The J35 is an actual function stealth fighter compared to the F35 glorified paperweight
Which reminds me, whatever happened to that yankee drone spaceplane thing? X-31 I think it wa called. I remember it being rather spooky
I don’t have any comments about this specific post but i’ve noticed you’ve been posting quite a lot lately and just wanted to take a moment to say thank you for all of your hard work finding and sharing all of these interesting and intriguing articles with us and keep it up, i’m sure we all appreciate your contributions here.
The comments on that article are wild. It’s a strange mix of realistically evaluating China’s improving capabilities and reconciling that with deteriorating US hegemony. All while the undercurrent of nationalism and American Exceptionalism looms in the background like a puppeteer guiding their thoughts…
Ah yes, the triumphant Ukranian army, winning so hard they’re resorting to sending amputees back to the front lines.
I know that not everyone has heard of hypersonic missiles, but anyone who has shouldn’t be surprised when the pacific carrier fleet becomes a new coral reef.
Ukraine is being devastated, and the US weapons have proven again and again to be nothing but a paper tiger.
US literally couldn’t achieve their goals in Afganistan.
Idk, comrade. They got plenty of money from opium trade, not to mention stealing government funds. Plus they ensured the region is destabilised and deindustrialized. Sounds like mission accomplished
Meh the US is usually pretty bad against an insurgent force using guerilla tactics (Viet Cong, Taliban, insurgents during Iraqi occupation). It’s great at engaging in large scale battles where there are clear targets though.
Good lord man. It’s like you’re from some alternate timeline where everything is backwards. Wherever you get your information from, drop it.
Those NATO trained Übersoldaten with Leopard 2A6s are really taking their sweet time against those shovel armed conscripts with Bukhankas.
Do they plan on severing that land bridge any time soon, I guess their Crimean summer beach party is canceled?
The only thing that was annihilated was the credibility of American economic warfare.
You’re not being realistic though.
Chinese military and personnel aren’t outdated. They have cutting edge ships, drone tech, and missile tech. The worst you can say is that they are too peaceful as a country so haven’t had as much chance to use their ordinance in the field. Training and war games exist though. Being in constant war for basically their entire existence hasn’t exactly improved the US’s track record.
As far as the Ukraine bit, US hardware is being blown through at an unprecedented rate. So much so that the US is running out of things to send Ukraine and is falling back on cluster munitions because, by their own admission, they don’t have anything else to give them. Ukraine continues to just take all of that and throw it away on Russian defenses for little to no gain. The US may have started the war to try to drain Russia of resources, but it functionally seems to be doing the opposite. Great news for the weapons manufacturing industry though.
Even if, hypothetically, we ignored all of that and accepted that China was outmatched militarily, going to war with China would be FAR worse for the US. Look at how much most of the EU is suffering under their own sanctions placed on Russia. Now imagine the same happens to the country that owns a huge amount of US debt, it would be absolute economic suicide even without a single round fired.
👐 Inshallah 👐
