When the war started it was seizure-this and sanction-that. I’ve read that $350B in Russian assets were seized and held, while major companies exited the Russian market, the ruble crashed, and inflation rocketed.
Meanwhile the cost of the Russian war must be astronomical to maintain, imports/exports have halted with Europe, there’s no financial aid to Russia (that I’m aware of) and multi-billion dollar resource supplies were cancelled.
All this, and Russia seems to still be having a good old time. Russians are on holidays en mass, the country is buying up arms and fossil fuels like its church Sunday, and their war machine still powers away and is prepared to keep fighting for a decade if it has to.
How? How does a country take that much of a financial beating and still be thriving? Where is the point of being broke and not being able to fund a war anymore?
An economics student from Russia here, here’s my perspective.
First, is that a country’s economy is a lot less volatile than we expected. There is also another factor that played into it. During covid, Russian companies amassed a sizable amount of inventory that was already inflated compared to European companies due to how volatile our economy is. This has given them enough time to reroute supply chains once sanctions hit.
Basically, the so-called “grey import” plays a major role in assuring the stability of our economy. Companies either route their import/export through neighboring countries or through affiliated companies.
Second is the competency of our central bank. After most of the major banks were cut off from SWIFT (used for international transactions), they raised the key rate, limited the amount of money you can cash out at one time, and did some other stuff. Higher key rate = higher deposit interest rate, but at the same time, credit became more expensive. All of this was needed for preventing banks from defaulting. Once panic died down, the changes were reverted. Now, they’re dealing with inflation.
Lastly, the majority of our budget comes from oil and gas. Since Europe didn’t want to buy it, Russia started selling it to Asia at discounted prices. Quantity of oil/gas sold drastically increased, which mitigated reduced prices and led to a surplus budget. Not to mention that they started pushing on large companies to reduce the amount of dividends and instead re-invest the money.
I wouldn’t call it “thriving,” however. All of this has definitely led to a slowdown in growth, which, as time goes by, will only get worse. But for now it’s fine.
The central bank has been surprisingly competent. But it seems like they’re often trading short term problems for long term ones, so we’ll see how they deal with them.
What do you think of this assessment? You agree, or is William Spaniel missing some stuff? https://youtu.be/ecdxs8Al424
They guy did his research, and he did it right. Even mentioning the “social contract”, that’s not something you hear from an average youtuber.
There’s only a few things I’ve noted
Although the monthly rate can be calculated as yearly÷12 and is acceptable, it is inaccurate. Doesn’t change much, but still. ( (1+monthly rate)^12 = 1+yearly rate <= this is the accurate conversion)
Next is “failed pension reform.” It’s failed in political sense. The intent of it was to temporarily lessen the depletion of pension fund, which it technically did do. But, yeah, it was absolutely not popular. Not to mention that it didn’t solve the root of the problem, which was obvious from the start. Back during his first or second presidency period, he promised not to raise the age for retirement, yet in 2018, he did exactly that. Needless to say that his ratings have been falling ever since then and up till February of 2022.
The one thing I would’ve liked him to also mention is “quality of foreign exchange earnings,” which is a relatively new term. Essentially, companies now need to pay attention to wether or not they can exchange earned currency for something that they can trade with other countries or within Russia. Previously, they traded in dollars, so it was never an issue.
As far as I understand they had prepared a pretty big warchest, and gas is still worth a lot and is being sold to countries that didn’t commit to sanctions (like China and India).
had prepared a pretty big warchest
And stupidly kept 1/2 of it in Western financial institutions.
We’re about to start selling Ukraine NATO weapon systems with what used to be Russian money.
Because even if they actually had an income of zero, they had saved up enough money over the years to be able to survive off it for some time. Commonly referred to as a “war chest”. They don’t actually have an income of zero though, their income is actually quite significant since they still have major trading partners like Iran, India and China to sell their fossil fuels and other resources to. They don’t buy fossil fuels, incidentally, they sell them. Like Saudi Arabia.
Also, you can buy things with more than just money. People figure that Kim Jong Un probably isn’t trading his stuff to them for money, but instead is getting technological assistance from them. Just one of their modern fighter-bomber tech, for instance, would be immeasurably valuable to N Korea, where their own tech has lagged behind a good bit over the years.
Lastly, people in the west have been doing sanctions evasion. I recall some German financial/tech company has its CEO now wanted by Interpol for being a Russian agent. So, when your own people are playing fast and loose with the law, that’s going to make things like sanctions more difficult.
Russia lived with sanctions for 70 some years as the Soviet Union, and has always been prepared to endure more. They are an economy built around raw, natural resources and can be largely self-sustaining…
And it has been pointed out, that Iran has been fighting off sanctions very successfully over the last twenty, thirty yeas…
Their secret then is Russia’ secret now, more or less:
India will trade with anybody and be neutral, and it isn’t a large task to create a shell company in India that peddles your wares throughout the whole of the world, repackaged and rebranded. At the height of Trump’s reintroduced sanctions on Iran, I was able to eat Iranian dates in South Korea - a country that followed US protcols and actually made it impossible for Iranians to start new private bank accounts unless in specific circumstances and did everything they could to place barriers on trade.
Heed you, these shell companies used to exist in places like Macao, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc., but US sanctions shut this down. It all moved to India…
Which is likely where a lot of Russian exports head when they aren’t just being imported completely independent of the Western world to places like Iran and China… China, of course, is another factor, as trade between RU and CN have increased exponentially over the last few years since the war started…
I could go on but, already, I am rambling… Suffice it to say, there’s a mssive block of countries that hate Western imperialism and/or are neutral and/or already face sanctions, and this network continues to trade with one another, and they also have begun to help facilitate one another trading with the West, either knowingly or just because they lack the will or robust enough resources to police it up.
Globalization is its own enemy when it comes to the West trying to impose sanctions, IMO.
Most companies don’t bother to setup a shell company. International businesses often have an existing distributors in several different countries.
When one country gets sanctioned a distributor in a neutral country suddenly increases their local sales by the same amount that the one in the sanctioned company used to have.
I used to work in international business a decade ago. I learned about a customer on the Saudi peninsula who purchased a huge amount of product (1,000x more than their entire market). It was strangely enough to cover Iran not that far away across the Persian Gulf.
Adding to all the reasons already listed, Russia isn’t striving. For example, right now there is a number of towns and cities experiencing outages in central heating (with houses designed around central heating so basically no other option to heat their appartments) while the weather dips to -20°C (around -4°F). All because the centralized boiler facilities weren’t properly maintained due to the lack of money (or, to be more precise, due to money being diverted towards the war).
There are other signs, like plains malfunctioning and flights getting delayed because some component broke and cannot be replaced due to sanctions, and they happen more and more often. Also the less noticeable stuff like prices of common goods increasing by a factor of two in the last couple of years while salaries barely increased at all.
So yeah, Russia is keeping itself afloat, but it isn’t thriving at all
Also the less noticeable stuff like prices of common goods increasing
I mean Putin had to apologize for high prices of eggs, that was very noticeable (of course a show to make him seem to care for the common people, which he doesn’t give a f*ck about). https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-rare-apology-over-price-eggs-2023-12-14/
I meant that these things aren’t as noticeable from outside of the country. Like, foreign news outlets probably won’t report on it much. Plus, eggs are more of an exception because of sudden shortage and prices rising rapidly. For most of the other goods the price grows more gradually and isn’t as obvious. Like in that metaphor about slowly boiling a frog.
Another problem that is noticeable from inside the country (at least by those affected by it) is that certain medications are vanishing from the pharmacies because they are no longer imported and they were never produced locally, or the local production is insufficient to meet the needs. I don’t know the full list, but the stock of ADHD meds is definitely low, and I’ve heard from friends that they had to switch to a different antidepressant due to shortages.
By the way, the RuSSians thought that if they could no longer fly to vacation in Europe or the USA, they would be able to vacation in Dubai, but after they bought tickets for the return trip, they could not even (there was news recently) return to RuSSia by plane, because the plane (RuSSian plane) broke down and they, as always, were “stuck” at the airport for several hours, ha-ha
… The way which you wrote this made me think there was a far more dramatic ending than being stuck at an airport for several hours due to mechanical failure.
My brother in Christ, I experienced that in Cleveland…
But I am not sure what you mean at the end - are these guys STILL in Dubai?! You said they were stuk at the airport for several hours… Like… What, they had to stay at the airport to wait for their boat because, as you said, they couldn’t return by plane? … Or they waited several hours at the airport to catch another flight…? What are you saying?
They are technically still on the way, on day 117 of an epic, unplanned, and wholly uncontrolled kite-surfing misadventure.
