Honestly, better than I thought that Haley would do, but this is going to be her best state by far. Just a grift for the gaggle of consultants in her campaign, with #resistance libs as probably the main victims.
From the r/politics megathread…
Poor Biden.
gucchi3892 comments on Discussion Thread: 2024 New Hampshire Presidential Primary
I feel bad for Biden. You can’t tell me that guy wants to be doing this at this point in his life.
A very unpopular comment.
Working-Airline-6745 comments on Discussion Thread: 2024 New Hampshire Presidential Primary
Hard to see how Biden beats Trump when he has lied on so many promises like canceling student loans and the economy is so bad because of his policies.
And the percentage of student loans that has been forgiven is small. I saw a tweet with a pie chart but I couldn’t find it so I had to google.
Student loan debt totals $1.74 trillion and is held by about 43.5 million Americans, with the average monthly payment amounting to $337.
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The administration has forgiven $136.6 billion for more than 3.7 million student loan borrowers in the first three years of Biden’s presidency.
If my math is right that’s ~13% of the loans have been forgiven for ~8.5% of the people with loans.
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The media so desperately wants this to be a real contest. At least they can feel safe in the knowledge that they won’t affect the outcome.
I was going to make this its own comment but I just saw what you wrote so I’ll put it here instead.
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David French is a right-winger at the NYT so the article is nonsense. But I thought it was funny.
tl;dr “There is diminished demand for Donald Trump.”
A ‘Jarring Political Message’ for Trump?
David French
When I watched the numbers roll in from New Hampshire on Tuesday night, I started to have flashbacks to a very different time. Here is the opening line of a Times story about the 1992 New Hampshire Republican primary:
“President Bush received a jarring political message in the New Hampshire primary today, scoring a less-than-impressive victory over Patrick J. Buchanan, the conservative commentator.” And what was the margin when the Times published those words? George H.W. Bush was beating Buchanan by 18 points, 58 percent to 40.
As I type these words, Donald Trump is beating Nikki Haley by a far lower margin. So is this result a “jarring political message” for Trump in much the same way that it was for Bush? While Trump isn’t the incumbent president, he is the incumbent nominee, and he’s running a version of a classic incumbent campaign. Yet he cleared only 51 percent of the vote in Iowa and, as of this writing, has 54 percent in New Hampshire.
It’s a number big enough to show that he has a strong grip on the G.O.P., but it’s also small enough to expose meaningful Republican discontent. Trump’s team will hype the result as a mandate and try to bully Haley out of the race, and she might leave.
It’s doubtful she’ll repeat Buchanan’s performance and stay in a hopeless race, contesting primary after primary, but if she does stay in the fight, one would expect she’ll earn a far higher percentage of total votes than Buchanan’s 23 percent, and that percentage was a harbinger of Bush’s general-election defeat.
New Hampshire tells us the G.O.P. is still Trump’s party, but it also tells us that Trump’s party is fractured, and fractured parties struggle to win the White House, especially when an incumbent is under fire. Just ask Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Bush in 1992. Each incumbent confronted a credible primary challenger, and each incumbent lost.
No, the analogy isn’t perfect, but the warning is still clear. Barring Supreme Court intervention, Trump is virtually certain to be the G.O.P. nominee, but he’s like a British battle cruiser in World War I: The imposing facade can conceal fatal vulnerabilities.
Trump is strong enough to win the G.O.P. primary contest, but his weaknesses are real, and each Haley voter has done the party the favor of demonstrating that Trump’s bluster outpaces his popularity. His victory comes with a warning sign: There is diminished demand for Donald Trump.
If Trump vote was estimated to be at ~60% which is not so much more - French might have written “Haley must appeal to the old-fashioned Republicans who want somebody to vote for.” It would be a right-wing version of “This is how Bernie can still win.” It would be wish casting with only platitudes and zero details.
and this was supposed to be her best state too. Even after the GOP tried to pull a DNC in 2020 and have all the ghouls line up behind Haley she couldn’t pull it off.
Although Trump is actually doing worse than I expected him to do, both here and in Iowa. Shows the never-Trumper movement does actually exist in some form on the right and isn’t just some weird news media phenomenon. Like with Biden in 2020, no doubt most of those Haley votes are just anti-Trump votes, who tf gives a shit about Nikki Haley. GOP seems just as split as the rest of the country, nearly 50-50. Surprising, thought things would be way more pro-Trump.
Nah NH has open primaries I bet a lot of those votes are libs crossing over desperately trying to avoid the trump W
South Carolina will put this whole thing to bed
It’s amazing watching the 2nd trump presidency coming and knowing it’s inevitable: I feel like I’m watching the planet approach in Melancholia
Except Iowa Trump did even worse. Probably Desantis took some of his vote there, but not a lot clearly. Most desantis people look to have gone to Nicki, at least in nh.
I’m not saying I expect trump to lose. I’m just saying it’s interesting seeing that the gop electorate is still very much a battleground.
Shows the never-Trumper movement does actually exist
I don’t think that’s accurate at all. I think the people voting for Haley are entirely different from the Never-Trump movement. Years ago Never Trump people like David Frum and Bill Kristol started to appear on MSNBC all the time. I don’t remember when 2018? I bet the never Trump vote was much less than a single percentage point then. And MSNBC entirely lost interest in them. I don’t think they’ve had a “never Trump” segment in years.
In any case when it comes to Haley - I think a small percentage of republicans started to be bit embarrassed after Trump’s criminal indictments started to come down. They want to seem principled and decent. They aren’t never Trump people by any means. I’d bet money that a large percentage of republican and independent voters who voted for Haley (or will vote for her) will change when they vote in the general election. They’ll do what republicans do which is vote for Trump. There’s no “never” for them. Biden could cure cancer himself before election day and they’d still vote for Trump.
There are polls showing that a significant amount of Haley voters won’t vote for Trump, with 43% going to Biden. That’s a big enough percentage to sink him in every swing state. Of course it’s impossible to know how it will actually play out, but I think more Repubs are sick of trump than you might think.
It’s an issue that became starkly apparent in polling ahead of the Iowa caucuses, when an NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of voters in that state found that fully 43 percent of Nikki Haley supporters said they would back President Joe Biden over Trump. And it’s a dynamic that has been on vivid display as the campaign shifted this week to New Hampshire.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/23/trump-moderate-republicans-problem-00137112
Polling only works if people are honest. I have great fatigue when it comes to comes to republicans saying they don’t like Trump. There’s always a “but”. Hopefully I’m wrong and I’m too cynical but to this point the “but” has always been there. Sometimes they say it and sometimes they don’t. Biden’s plan is to pray that the fascism fever will break. I think that’s a truly terrible dangerous plan and total nonsense. In any case - we’ll know in ~286 days.
yeah fair enough. I guess by never trump I just meant anti-Trump, since you’re right probably most of those people will likely vote Trump in the general so they’re not quite the same.
I suppose what I meant was, it is surprising how anti-Trump the GOP is. We often make fun of the never-Trumpers for believing that they represent the hogs in the GOP, but really they’re not completely wrong. The GOP seems to be split down the middle with nearly half ready to throw their support behind some neocon appointed by the establishment. Not that they’re gonna vote Biden or for any Democrat like the never-Trumpers, but the GOP remains a battleground.
Trump gets more media coverage and people barely know who the other candidates are. No one else stands a chance.
Asa Hutchinson got 0.1% in Iowa so he dropped out. After that the Haley campaign claimed she got his endorsement. They lied. He put out a single tweet of mild approval about her. At first I thought it was a stupid thing for her campaign to do. What were they hoping for? That Haley might grab a literal handful of Hutchinson voters in New Hampshire?
But then I realized the obvious. Because nobody actually gives a shit about endorsements anyway - her consultants knew the media would correct the situation and that would generate an iota of free media. And very little bit of free media helps.
