Prigozhin says Wagner Group is turning its convoys around.
They wanted to dissolve Wagner Group. On June 23, we set off on our “march of justice.” In the span of 24 hours, we got within 200 kilometers of Moscow. During the time, not a single drop of our fighters’ blood was shed. Now we’ve reached a point where bloodshed is possible. So, understanding the full responsibility for the potential shedding of Russian blood from either side, we’re turning our columns around and heading back in the opposite direction towards our field camps, according to plan.
Perhaps this isn’t the coup just yet. Most likely his attempts to rally the Russian military to his side failed and it’s possible that he was offered some kind of deal to not be arrested/killed if he waved off now.
How he was going to hold Moscow with less than 20k troops (assuming some peeled off on the march for various duties), I didn’t know. It’s a huge city and 20k troops would be a small footprint once you spread them out over such a large metro area. Maybe waving off at this point was all part of the expected brinksmanship he’s been playing with the head of the Russian MoD?
Interesting times in Russia!
it’s possible that he was offered some kind of deal
It’s been reported that Lukashenko (of Belarus) brokered a deal. I haven’t seen any further details.
Rumor only, part of the deal was he answers directly to Putin only. He no longer answers to the ministry of defense.
and to seal the deal, Putin has invited Prigozhin and his top leadership to tea.
As usual it’s all theater. The real question is if Putin was part of it from the start or if it was just him showing he had the loyalty of the Russian army.
This stunt made everyone involved look weak so it makes no sense to fake it.
I agree it’s likely real. But purely theoretically, if Putin wanted to distance himself from something, this would be one approach. E.g. if Prigozhin commits a war crime and Putin can say, “What am I to do!? Revolting mercenaries!”
I don’t think this is a stunt. I think Wagner got a head too large and something put them in place. Atleast for now.
Only way the current situation makes sense to me:
- Prigozhin finds out Putin wants him dead
- Prigozhin decides “if I’m dead anyway, I’m taking Putin with me”
- Lukashenko somehow convinces Prigozhin that “it’s ok, Putin changed his mind and won’t kill you anymore” - so Prigozhin no longer feels the need to go for a suicide mission (although how Lukashenko convinced Prigozhin of this, I have no idea)
If this had really been about Shoigu or a coup or anything other than just a suicide mission, then the current result makes 0 sense. (But in that case, maybe the situation isn’t really over at all)
Nah, if Prigozhin doesn’t have loyalists installed at FSB, Interior, and Defence he’s a dead man. I guarantee you he knows this. You don’t get into a position of power in Russia without knowing that. His lead elements were holding an Operational Rally Point just outside of Moscow when they just… turned around and a promise…? From Putin…?
No chance, Prigozhin may be a ruthless, cutthroat sociopath but he’s not an idiot. Add to that Putin called him out as a terrorist, a mutineers, an enemy of the state, for Putin to U-turn makes him look weak. Sure, the leverage is there but there’s no way you make him look weak and just walkway… not AND survive for very long…
Yeah, He has to have his people installed at Defence, FSB and Interior, and at that point he’s in charge of the Russian Federation in all but name.
There’s reporting that Lukashenko offered Prigozhin safe haven in Belarus.
This whole situation is so bizarre. I’m super curious what’s really going on behind the scene here. Was some type of secret deal struck to make Prigozhin happy enough to turn around and leave? Hopefully more information on these events starts to leak out over the coming days from involved sources.
Worst revolution ever.
