So he halted the march before reaching Moscow. Took a deal where he goes to Belarus and no one gets prosecuted. And then everything carries on as normal? What was the point of this then?
The only thing I can think of is he actually thought he was going to be killed and now thinks he won’t? Ideologically he said a lot about wasted resources and lives and generals with no experience or planning, yadda yadda but until we see a true shake up of military leadership, nothing will change. It doesn’t matter if it’s shoigu or Putin himself, there is no experienced leadership for a war like this so nothing will change
“When you play the game of thrones, you either win or you die.”
I am very sceptical of this. Lukashenko brokered a deal? He’s a Putin puppet, why would Prigozhin cut a deal with him? What would that deal look like? Does Prigozhin become head of the MoD or Putins designated successor? He’s right there outside Moscow, he has the leverage, why would he blink?
Putin called him a traitor, an enemy of the state, why would Putin back down from that point, he already looks weak, why look weaker via a U-turn? Prigozhin must know he’s a dead man if he backs down, he knows the play book, why would he trust in the deal?
Was the whole thing a psy-op to give Putin an out? Was the voice recording that is the ultimate source of all this a Russian State propaganda play? Is it a play by Wagner to buy time to consolidate his forces before he moves on Moscow? But then, he has to be the one to move fast and hard…
Whatever is going on, we don’t know. Next 5-24hrs will be key.
What if this is all an elaborate ruse to redeploy Wagner to Ukraine’s northern border?
Prigozhin is pissed off at Russia’s Ministry of Defense. He thinks they suck. Russian MoD is pissed off at Wagner. They really wish Prighozin would forget his social media passwords and STFU. Prigozhin “mutinies” by taking Rostov-on-Don. A couple of MoD choppers were supposedly shot down, but for the large part, very few casualties. Putin looks angry. Claims to have been “stabbed in the back”. Lukashenko of Belarus “brokers a peaceful resolution”, and Pregozhin and his Wagnerites agree to go to Belarus.
… in exile? I doubt it.
This looks like a winning situation for everyone concerned. Russian MoD finally get the Wagnerites out of their hair. Wagner ends up in Belarus for a much-needed resupply of equipment and perhaps some Belarusan soldiers / convicts. Putin saves face. Lukashenko looks competent.
What if Wagner subsequently decides to re-enter the fray, but this time from Ukraine’s northern border? Kyiv and Lviv are closer to Belarus than they are to Russia.
Hmmm…
it’s not the soldiers going to Belarus, it was only offered to pregozhin himself… if this is on the level
it’s not the soldiers going to Belarus, it was only offered to pregozhin himself… if this is on the level
I would be surprised if Pregozhin voluntarily abandons what makes him indispensable to Putin. Without his armed forces, Pregozhin is just an impotent loudmouth in a sea of impotent loudmouths. He’s setting himself up for defenestration if he goes that route.
I’m convinced Prigozhin believed he was a dead man already and decided to go out with a bang. The chances of success were just too slim, it just feels like a final gambit.
If he believed he was bound to fail in Ukraine and bound to fail in Moscow, wouldn’t the latest news suggest he has even fewer options than he had before? He’s backed himself into a corner surely?
I’m not sure what you mean.
But apparently, the deal entails him moving to Belarus and not being persecuted.
So, if my assessment is correct, which is a big if, he went from Putin putting a mark on him to an at least decent chance of surviving in Belarus, by pulling this hail Mary.
I disagree, the more that comes out, the more I’m convinced its a jostling for power kinda vibe. If he’s walked away without securing loyalists at FSB, MoI, AND MoD he’s a dead man and he has to know that. You can’t get into a powerful position in Russia and not know that. If so, then with FSB, MoI and MoD loyal to him he runs Russia in all but name.
Bummer. Was hoping they’d wipe eachother out and end this damn war.
Something happened behind the scenes…
Whatever Lukashenko said to him must have been pretty damn good.
