This is what’s keeping me up at night, and also exactly why I think all the predictions of four or five hundred seats for Labour are overblown.
So the “vote blue red no matter who” gaslighting has started here now?
Also, I can’t help but think the choice of language by the guardian was deliberate, given the other meaning of “wobbly”.
You know, mate, not every political argument you disagree with is ‘gaslighting’. ‘Gaslighting’ is a form of emotional abuse. This article, which says ‘It’s possible that the Labour vote is quite soft’, is not, and I kind of don’t believe I have to say this, is not a form of emotional abuse. It is just an article saying ‘It’s possible that the Labour vote is quite soft’. It’s actually critical of Labour, which hardly amounts to a polemic about the benefits of voting for them.
And even within the long and storied genre of neurotic leftwing posting, I think ‘The Guardian are deploying subliminal anti-IWW messaging’ really stands out.
It’s classic guardian headline writing. If things look good… make them sound bad. Encourages the clicks and fake outrage.
But they’re not wrong either, there’s plenty of precedent for the conservatives getting a higher vote share than polls have predicted. We sometimes call it “the shy Tory” effect and revolt there’s likely lots of reasons behind it, the fact remains that polls are not a guarantee of anything.
I think they were referring to the Wobblies https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Workers_of_the_World
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Dark nights of disappointment in suburban leisure centres haunt Labour nightmares, with candidates and activists cruelly betrayed by late swings and polling errors: 1970, 1992, 2015 – every generation of Labourites bears its scars.
Labour’s vote share has softened a little in recent polling, though the headline lead remains exceptionally strong, as Tory numbers have sagged just as much or more.
Yet a move leftwards to try to secure progressive tactical votes also comes with risks, potentially alienating more moderate Tory switchers whose anger at the government does not easily translate into affection for the opposition.
Such voters may already be wary about handing a blank cheque to a dominant Starmer government and they may yet reconsider their choice to switch if Labour makes a late move leftwards.
Low turnout may be a bigger risk to Labour at this election, as the party’s support is particularly strong in groups such as the young and the struggling, who are often hard to get to the polls, while what remains of Tory strength is concentrated among pensioners, who are not.
At the moment, a universally reviled government provides a source of unity and a target for anger, helping to paint over cracks in a broad and unwieldy electoral coalition.
The original article contains 925 words, the summary contains 207 words. Saved 78%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
