Is there a hard threshold? Do high risk investments such as penny stocks qualify as gambling? Do low risk investments? Annuities? Bonds? CDs?
This comment got me wondering.
Is it more to do with the venue? Stock markets and real estate vs casinos and the lottery?
Were the MIT Blackjack Team gambling or investing?
Is this just another semantic hotdogs are sandwiches discussion or is there an agreed threshold?
Any time you spend money on the chance to make money, it’s gambling, IMO.
Lottery ticket? Gambling. Buying stock? Gambling. Sports betting? Buying into a poker game? Believe it or not, gambling (which is the only gambling I’ll personally do since the game is still enjoyable even if I lose).
Spreading out stock purchases across the market guarantees returns over the long run.
Buying one stock is gambling, buying a wide spread of stocks (or an index fund that does so) and holding them for years is investing.
I agree in principle, but technically it’s really just very low risk.
Buying into a total market index fund at 90yo could be considered high risk since it’s not unlikely for the market to go down with no time for you to recover.
But does that make it gambling?
diversification is a proven investment strategy to minimize risk versus expected reward. the goal of investing is to try to achieve financial goals while minimizing exposure to losses. gambling generally doesn’t use goals or risk assessment or loss minimizing strategies. but im sure you could come up with definitions that blur this stuff.
The key phrase is ‘over the long run’ and ‘holding them for years’. That 90yo wants to have long-ago moved their investments into bonds because, as you point out, a stock market downturn may not come back up before they die. Waiting out a downturn takes years and they are drawing down on their investments regularly.
Spreading out stock purchases across the market guarantees returns over the long run.
No it doesn’t.
It really kinda does.
At least as close as anything can be guaranteed in this world.
Buying into a broad market index fund (S&P500 or wider) and staying in for decades, will absolutely grow in value faster than inflation.
The key here is time.
Anything can go up or down on a daily, monthly, or even yearly basis; The longer your time horizon is, the more all that volatility gets evened out into a steady gentle climb upward. So much so that if you pick any 25 year period over the last 200 years, you won’t find a single instance where the total value of all traded stocks was worth less at the end than at the start.
Because when you’re investing in the whole market, you’re investing in the whole society itself. And society is always doing everything it can to grow, produce, and consume more. That’s what humans do. Random forces may slow or stop that, for a time; But as long a humanity exists, it will still be true.
Lol.
Buying one lottery ticket is gambling. Buying 1,000 different lottery tickets is investing. Got it.
Buying enough lottery tickets to guarantee a payout just ensures you lose money as the house always takes a cut. Investing, unlike the lottery, has the benefit of not being a zero sum game. There is wealth generated and buying something like an index fund and holding for years puts you in the group making a profit along with everyone else.
Example: If you bought VTI (an index fund) just before the 2008 crash (and subsequently lost a bunch of value during the crash), you would still be up 257% today. And that isn’t some outladish example; do the same with the S&P 500 and you are up 279% today. Purchasing for the long term and with a wide array of stocks is investing.
Edit: And in both of those examples you would be earning dividends the entire time as well, which is not part of the quoted %.
It’s technically not a guarantee, it is certainly possible for the entire market to take a dump at once. Over the long term – decades – it has been profitable to invest in the US stock market even counting these downturns. Like they say in all the stock prospectuses, though, past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Still, I’ll take my chances with the market. At least if it goes to zero, I’ll have a lot of company at the homeless shelter.
And this assumes the line will always trend up. Forever. Which we don’t know if it will or not.
🌎🧑🚀🔫🧑🚀
So emojis like this are the internet equivalent of the cockney rhyming slang, innit? I immediately translated that, but someone, in one hundred years with no knowledge of 2020s meme culture will think it’s complete gibberish.
It becomes gambling when you are going on gut feelings without researching what you’re doing.
If you have an investment strategy that financial advisors approve of, let’s say investing 70% in a US index fund, 20% bonds and 10% high risk mutual funds that you don’t touch for years or decades, that’s investing.
If you’re just randomly picking stocks, buying and selling in order to make a quick buck because of some guy screaming at you on television without any real research into a company other than a few google searches, that’s gambling.
I want to remind everyone that there is no guarantee that the market / index funds continue to go up. It hasn’t happened in the US market, but look at the Nikkei over the last 30 years - if you had invested in the 90s you would only now be getting some of your money back - that is a long time.
I feel you have literally picked the single most unique example for markets not going up. You make it seem like the US’s market will need to experience the same thing eventually, and I don’t think most people would agree with that assertion. Japan’s economy is a very strange and unique case.
You make it seem like the US’s market will need to experience the same thing eventually.
You make it seem like it didn’t already: The US market didn’t reach its 1929 peak again until 1954. 25 years is a long time to hold out on withdrawing your retirement investments.
Here’s two other modern markets:
The Athens Stock Exchange had peaks in the 2000’s that haven’t recovered.
Ukraine’s stock market has ceased operations since the invasion.
These events are rare, but not unheard of.
If BRICS takes hold, yea, we’ll see decades of decline then; even if unemployment is at 0%.
The loss of trust in the greenback, be that from consumer confidence or foreign countries moving on from Breckenridge (meaning the dollar is no longer the default global currency - so huge sell offs of the dollar, lowering demand =value plummets) due to our foreign policy will not be a happy time for Americans. Debts’ll come due, upon threat of physical war or sanction (which is just economic warfare). We could end up ceding land in the Pacific or elsewhere…and maintaining dual fleets, even one fleet, becomes a lot less likely.
More plausibly in my mind, America would declare war and use tactical nukes, and use them first, repeatedly and harshly, before it lets its rich get eaten…cuz the working class (<$1,000,000) has already lost their fat.
Nuking farmland or fish migrations could potentially avoid MAD but make no mistake, to the oligarchy in charge, war is the only chance they could avoid mutual assured destruction.
To the privileged, regression to the mean feels like oppression.
That’s a huge if. Part of the bonus of the US dollar is our consistency in paying back debts which the nations of BRICS haven’t shown themselves to be. Not to mention, you need a very strong reason to switch to other currencies. Hell, BRICS hasn’t even decided on a mutual currency, I believe, which means as of now, BRICS basically means going back to before the US was the world trade currency which is a huge step back.
So sure if BRICS completely gets their shit together and convinces a lot of the economy to join, that would cause problems for the US economy. Or also if Vietnam becomes a huge economy, and decides to Nuke the US, or also if aliens come and blow up the US, or if all americans decide to collectively commit suicide.
Point I’m making is your worry doesn’t seem like an imminent problem. It could, but it would be a slowly decreasing problem that hopefully the US deals with accordingly and in a way that doesn’t negatively affect people.
This is the closest answer to what I’d agree with. It’s a shame the other top comment turned into something of a squabble, because I agree with a lot of what was said there as well.
Investing always comes with some risk. Buying land or a house is typically considered a safe investment in most of the world. But that house/land can undergo a natural disaster and be ruined. Putting money into anything not insured (FDIC in the US, for example) carries a non-zero percentage of risk.
At what point does that risk cross over into gambling? I’d say when you exceed your personal risk assessment level. I have what is typically considered a higher risk portfolio. I am in my 40’s, 90+ % invested in stocks, with a definite tilt to growth stocks. I have been in that same position since I started investing at 16 in a Roth IRA. I’ve been through a few financial crisis periods and have always held firm to my belief that in my investing timeframe that my strategy is sound. Never sweated it for a second, even when my balance was small, so as it went negative before I could afford to actively contribute much to building my balance. Now I am very solid into 6 figures, and I only earn average for my state, which is 58k, but that is fairly recent.
To get the type of growth I feel I need with the pay I get, I went in knowing I would have to assume more risk. So I did a lot of work to understand the safest methods to get that growth in exchange for the volatility that can be involved in that investment approach. I was willing to accept that risk, and I stand by it decades later. If I started playing with riskier fund choices, that’d be gambling. Some mega-big growth funds can be very tempting. But the fees for those funds are guaranteed while the gains are not. So chasing an extra 1 or 2% isn’t worth that added risk to me. Things like options and stock shorting I don’t understand well, so I stay away from them since I don’t understand the associated risks. That stuff is gambling, where you can’t count on yourself to have at least a sensible margin of control over what happens.
If you are new to investing or feel confused, I always suggest the Boglehead’s Guide to Investing. It’s not trying to sell you anything and explains things in pretty easy to digest terms and tells you how to develop a simple investing strategy that you can stick to and be a relatively hands off investor. It used to be free online, but I think that’s caught up in the Hachette vs Internet Archive lawsuit, so you can check out their Getting Started wiki which is an abbreviated version of the book, plus some new and updated stuff.
If its fun or get rich quick. Gambling.
If it’s some boring thing some adviser told you that you are sick of, that you then told your family and they are sick of it. You just going to leave it and forget about it. Then it’s investing.
Short term intent is gambling. Long term is investing.
If you’re trying to make money today, this week, the next quarter, year. You’re gambling.
If you buy into something, intending to stay in it for a long time (think years and decades) you’re investing.
This is a bad outlook, there are plenty of low risk investment strategies that are meant as income generation, and it’s generally what you should switch to as you start needing to cash in on your savings, these are things like laddered tbills and dividend stocks.
You can go slightly riskier doing things like wheeling options if your tolerance is higher.
Investment profiles differ for a reason and the term of the investment is just part of the strategy.
I should add that ‘buy and hold’ does not make something not a gamble.
If I told you I bought a random crypto currency or penny stock with no future or fundamentals and plan to hold on to it for 10 years because I just know it’s gonna hit big, would you not consider that a gamble?
Yes. I’d call that an investment in crypto. A risky investment is still an investment.
Maybe we just define the terms invest and gamble differently.
I would say investment is giving your money / time / energy into something with the expectation / belief / hope that eventually in the long run, that thing will become what you want.
Gambling on the other hand, is putting money / time / energy into something with the expectation / belief / hope that it will eminently get you something you want.
Either could be high or low risk. They may not pay money out at all.
You make an investment in teaching your kids to drive, so they will be more independent and capable in the future.
You make a gamble on teaching your kids to drive, that they won’t get them selves into a wreck tomorrow.
Gamble = Short term
Investment = Long term
But term is all relative, long term means something different for everyone.
A four week t-bill has the same term as a hugely out of the money long call on a meme stock, and yet one is a tried and true investment strategy and the other is very clearly gambling.
The difference isn’t the time, it’s the risk profile.
