(Blue is Biden, Purple is Kamala, Orange is Newsom, Cyan is Whitmer, Burgundy is Obama)
Poly market has Biden at 13% right now. Harris has overtaken.
What you wanna see everything from 2022? https://electionbettingodds.com/DEMPrimary2024.html
BTW, if the reports that the big call against Biden where he refused to backdown quietly, the one that was supposed to end the ‘quiet’ phase of the revolt and be followed up with them all going public…if the reports are true that it ended less than an hour before the shooting…dear god that timing is hillarious. It would explain both the slower than normal response from officials to what happened(all busy prepping for something else that night and Sunday morning) and it effectively bought Biden 4 extra days and has seemingly staggered the response that did finally break this morning a bit since it’s not as total as some predicted at least today.
Maybe that’s why the roll call got delayed(I saw a bunch of people phrasing it as 'Biden faction trying to push it ahead", but no, like a week before the debate they agreed to meet on July 21st-23rd for a virtual roll call to nominate Biden to prevent issues in case Ohio caused problems again, that was the plan). It reads more like the Biden faction wanted to keep the original date as planned while the anti-Biden faction pushed hard for a delay another week, probably because with the shooting wasting a couple of days they no longer felt like they could get Biden to back down in time.
The fact it did get delayed a week shows us that internally the Anti-Biden faction right now has gained the upper hand and has more sway. Pre-Primaries or even just Before they End that would be enough to push him out, but the primaries ended on June 8th. Biden has the delegates. It’s not going to be that easy. If he refuses to drop out they’d have to sway half his delegates to quit, or more if not all the ones who quit backed the same other candidate. That’s nearly impossible. I smell the next 3 or 4 days being the make or break moment, if by the original roll call date he’s holding firm they’ll call it off and start trying to clean up his image.
Initially he recovered from the debate, most people thought it was fine he just sounded hoarse. Then when the Media turned hard after 36-48 hours and the subreddits went one by one he took a hard second tip. Initially Newsom was the top fav, but with all the funding issues discussion as the days ticked by Kamala surged up. Then they batted equal for a few days until the media storm ended and reports the revolt was ‘over’ and ‘done for’ hit over the weekend, he recovered somewhat. Then everything spiked back up again hard and the Nato Interview had a rough start and they were back to batting even. Michelle Obama was the Number 3 pick for a while too, Newsom fell off. Kamala and Biden traded spots again and she briefly had a solid 5 point lead. Then there was a day of no new news and Biden saying he was in again and he actually did really well on that Monday interview., so he climbed up again, and then for like 3 and a half days after the Trump shooting there was a rally effect and his support surged, even passing the lull at the end of June. 15 hours ago was the highest level of faith the Betters had had in Biden since the debate.
Then the rally effect wore off and the replacement faction got back on there feet and Biden suffered his hardest single day drop-off in a day, he went from 70+% at 9 in the morning(compared to 81% pre debate and 29% at his worst like a week ago) to 41% right now, Kamala just passed him in the odds again. Whitmer has also firmly overtaken Obama and Newsom for the Number 3 spot, though overall the Not-BidenORHarris faction is losing ground overall, nothing on the level of the Newsom spike after the debate.
Whelp, looks like Kamala is now at 80.9%!
I have to say though I think Biden did right by his country and I hope history smiles on him for it.
That was after another tightening up tho. I also get the vibes based on how many people really didn’t like Harris(and how many people initially expected Biden to quit in less than two weeks) that if everyone had full hindsight they would have rallied around Biden and kept the media on damage control like they were the day after the debate. Problem is by the time it became clear Harris was the only other option(second week in) and by the time it became clear a quick Biden surrender wasn’t going to happen(third week) too much damage had been done to Biden by the campaign to remove him and it couldn’t really be undone.
I agree in that too much damage had been done to the Biden Campaign for Biden to remain in the race, but I think that would have been a mistake (electorally) to rally around him in spite of his debate performance. He’s 81 and his debate performance only proved his age wasn’t just a republican talking point and was a real problem. I think rallying around him would have failed to capture important swing state voters.
All that being said, I think Harris is preferable to 2024 Biden, though not as good as 2020 or 2016 Biden would be.
They ended up rallying around her fine. That risk is over.
Now it’s an endurance game. Biden’s been in a slump since Summer 2023 and has slowly been bleeding support, and then there were 3 and 1/2 weeks of utter chaos and tanking. You can’t recover from that overnight, it’s been 3 nights and she’s still not 100% done building back from the last months damage to the status quo, poll averages post-acceptance are currently 0% lead(One two point ahead, one two point behind) or if you average for their range with Biden prior, 0.1% in favor of Harris, though the sample size is too small, give it another week.
That’s still comparable or slightly behind June 2024 Biden and a good bit behind Summer 2023 Biden(which was the last point where he’d have strong odds of winning if an election happened right then). The Democrats are the ones who need to close the gap this time, not Trump like the last two elections(in 2016 he closed the gap hard in October, in 2020 he failed). Also due to both the Electoral College and the fact that Trump voters(even nowadays, albeit not to the same significant error margins in 2016 they’ve compensated a bit) under-report on polls in Blue and Purple States(Especially female Trump voters, who I suspect are the biggest blind spot in regards to the young internet demographics), you need a 3 point lead for a solid win. 2 point lead is too close to call leaning R and 1 point lead is probably a loss. Harris is like, 0.1 point lead at best RN and the sample size is too small. Way better than Biden was last week, but an election this weekend favors Trump still(eh maybe not weekend weekend the base is super stirred up, but like a week from now).
There’s also 3 X Factors to consider. The 3rd Parties this year lean more left than usual, same way in 2020 they leaned more right than usual. The Libertarians(who draw from both sides, but usually more Republicans) picked a former Democrat Chase Oliver and are currently taking 60% from Democrats. The Green Party has gotten back on their feat and Jill Stein has better name recognition than ANYONE else Third Party. The PSL Marxists are surging and are on track to surpass the Constitutionalists for 5th biggest party. The Constitution Party(the only one of the big set still firmly leaning more right) also picked someone who was a democrat, albeit a Republican prior so a DINO. Still less right than usual, so probably more 75% R instead of 90% R. Also they’re falling behind these last few years. Had no third parties run Trump probably would have won 2020. There’s the wild card that is RFK Jr too. Does he pull more Never Trumpers or more Biden Bros? Were those leaks about him working for Trump true, and if they weren’t, did the Republicans make it up to pressure him to quit and stop stealing their votes, or the inverse? He’s polling better than Gary Johnson in 2016 and Ralph Nader in 2000(both of whom underpreformed the polls pretty badly, but still, half of a higher number still ends in a higher number compared to half of a lower number).
Secondly Israel. Are the Democrats going to throw Biden under the bus and blame every problem there on him(Washes Kamala’s hands clean, that’s good, but also risks losing a lot of Biden Loyalists and Casually Racist Democrats to RFK Jr) OR double down(Opposite issue, keeps the Biden Psychos in line, but risks weakening Kamala’s youth turnout). This whole thing is what pushed Biden firmly into losing all polls from then on out. If it remains the low level situation it is it probably won’t be a make or break, but if the Hezbollah War kicks off the choice will matter massively and picking wrong could be a disaster. It’s weighing who’s riskier to temp losing: Biden Diehards and Israeli Nationalists, or Young Leftists and Arab Immigrants. Do you risk the former going to RFK or Chase Oliver, or the latter going to Jill Stein and Claudia Da La Cruz? A choice will have to happen.
Thirdly, Pennsylvania. The one state where nothing is going to plan. White voters are the key demographic here, Harris is behind compared to Biden and even more behind compared to Trump. Scranton Joe had the home state edge, Kamala doesn’t(Picking Shapiro would mostly fix this, albeit maybe not quite to the same degree on it’s own). Also, the Trump shooting happened right here, here here, the people at the Rally and their families(more importantly) are almost all from PA. The Post-Shooting bump here is bigger than in any other state, relying on poor MAGA turnout like in 2022 is not going to work, especially not here. And it’s also the single most important state. If the Dem’s can’t yank Georgia(which is more possible than a month ago thanks to Harris, but the GOP spent 3 years fortifying it out of fear of cracking the solid south, they worked hard to bring it back in 2021 and 2022 and it was razor tight in 2020) they NEED Pensylvania or that’s it, game over. They could win Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona(all looking ok right now, Michigan is touch and go) and Nevada(much much less so, but the least important of the 5) and still lose 270-268 without PA. Lady Luck giveth and she taketh, nationally Harris has better odds than Biden, but in the state where it matters most everything is playing against her this last month.
So from looking at the website again, it looks like Kamala has once again overtaken Joe in the Election Betting Odds now that Joe has Covid.
Edit: Kamala is now at 56.%
Biden went from his all time high since the debate yesterday morning(72%, relatively close to his pre-debate 82%) to breaking his previous all time low record of 28% set a week ago(He’s at 26% now) in just** 27 hours**. Kamala went from her lowest since July 2nd(remember, the first couple of days was dominated by the Newsom Gang, the funding talk took a bit to spread) to breaking her all time high in about **23 hours. **
Yeah this whole thing is just crazy. Just for once I would like to have a normal election cycle like 2008 or 2012. Everything has been a mess since Trump entered politics in 2016.
Biden himself has had his reputation totally destroyed in the last month. I honestly feel really bad for him and I am not confident he can bounce back from this and generate the enthusiasm needed to quash MAGA in November.
I think I’m at the point where I just want it to stop and for dems to just rally behind someone. Kamala seems like the easiest choice.
