The growth of Linux desktop marketshare, in percent of total, since 2009

References

“Linux hits another all-time high for July 2024 according to Statcounter”. Liam Dawe. GamingOnLinux. Published: 2024-08-01T11:35Z. Accessed: 2024-08-04T19:21Z. https://www.gamingonlinux.com/2024/08/linux-hits-another-all-time-high-for-july-2024-according-to-statcounter/.

The only line which I demand must only go up.

300% percent Linux market share by 2070!

This is a big deal. More Linux users leads to more Linux-supporting software, which leads to more users.

The biggest resistence is front-loaded into that first few percent.

In my opinion, advancements in binary compatibility accross distributions (Flatpak, AppImage, …) and broad compatibility with Windows software (Wine and forks… thank you Valve!) are making Linux easier to use.

This is a big deal. More Linux users leads to more Linux-supporting software, which leads to more users.

It should correlate with more donations , the donations linux mint are getting are also growing fairly consistently. the same is true for the “Open Source Collective” which is a fiscal host for open source projects.

At the same time, I feel like nowadays there’s less forums or places people can ask help with, although today ChatGPT can be a good help with newbie questions.

I feel like nowadays there’s less forums or places people can ask help with

I’m sorry, what??

There are more places than ever to find support. The Ubuntu forums, EndeavourOS forums, Manjaro forums, NixOS forums, SUSE forums, etc. Just about every larger distro has it’s own forum and they’re all very active. Then there are general Linux, Linux “newbie”, Linux help communities on the various Lemmy servers and (whether you like it or not) on Reddit also. Then there’s Mastodon. General tech forums like Level1Tech, Hacker News, etc.

The Arch wiki is also great.

I dont know about that. There is Lemmy and a ton of Distros or respins I know have forums.

Some have chatrooms which totally suck for finding information.

the only chart I care about

In 2424 108.5% of people will use linux 👍

It’s data extrapolation time!

Why would you use a linear approximation, this clearly looks like exponential growth (for the last 9 years).

Linux will obviously achieve 100% market share within the next few years.

Someone should add major Windows releases on the X axis. There’s gotta be some correlation.

I had dabbled in it off and on since LONG LONG ago, but I only went full time (no dual boot) since windows 11 release. So yeah, I bet there’s lots others like me.

I had been dual booting for a while with Windows 11/Fedora until one day I needed to update the BIOS on my motherboard. Windows decided it was too big of an upgrade and wanted me to activate again. I called support, and they said that I had used up all my activations and would need to buy a new copy.

Thanks Microsoft, for helping me switch full time to Linux!

They force you to re-buy the same software for literally the same hardware. That’s insane.

wait that’s a thing? I guess I’d never find out because I always used whatever activation method was available on MDL for each version for the odd time I used windows.

Thanks! It does indeed look like people try out Linux before the new Windows release. Then it returns to the slower adoption trend.

It’s also interesting because you can also see a steeper line corresponding on the “worse” windows versions (8, 11) while it’s relatively stagnant during windows 10

That spike in 2021 looks to be around the win11 release date, although it pretty much dropped the same amount after. Does look to be a sharper trend in adoption since then, though (with all of the caveats about what the data is measuring of course).

Actually windows market share is growing as well. It’s MacOS that’s dropping

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The growth of Linux desktop marketshare, in percent of total, since 2009(sh.itjust.works)

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