Everyone says every organization lacks workers. Film at 11.
My entire life we talked about how this was going to happen when the boomers retire. With the average boomer turning 65 within the past couple of years, that time has come. And now all of a sudden we’re surprised and unprepared?
You can play around with the historical tab here:
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/dp-pd/dv-vd/pyramid/index-en.htm
We’ve never had as many working age people as we do today, even with the upcoming boomer retirement, out population pyramid is a rectangle. The number of workers is ever greater when you consider the increase of women in the workforce over the last few decades. Total work output per worker is also up with automation and industrial-organizational updates.
For example, all industries employment is 19.6 Mn people in 2022, compared to 12.6 Mn in 1992. 2009 and 2020 are the only two years where total employment has dipped, and both times it recovered in two years. (Statscan labour force characteristics)
The question isn’t “why are we short workers in X field?” Or “why are we short workers nationally”
The questions are “why can’t we attract workers into X fields” and the related, but more national, question of “why does a worker, that produces more than ever, have less purchasing power than ever?”
Further numbers:
Canada wide, total school enrollment (elementary and secondary) has been between 5Mn and 5.7Mn in all school types for the last 20 years, undulating up and down.
Total workers employed by the education industry (codes 61 and 611) over the same period has increased form 981k to 1,393k.
So about 40% more people in the industry for 14% more school age students.
So what’s going on here? I can think of a few possible explanations:
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An increase in part time work. Number of workers go up, but total hours of work go down. Edit: full time has actually been increasing as a percentage. Perhaps just educators are getting a part time squeeze?
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Education includes post-secondary. Since post-secondary has become a lucrative business, employees are more likely to favour working there for more compensation.
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Since we’ve sold the narrative of post-secondary being a workforce gateway, the number of people going to post-secondary schools, poaching educators from grade schools. Related to point 2, this poaching is likely to be effective. (1.5Mn to 2.1Mn over the last 2 decades).
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Increase in overhead. I assume IT requirements have ballooned, but dated buildings may also increase janitorial requirements.
Even with post-secondary included, total students are only up 20%. Teaching has probably become more efficient with IT and other tools. Administration has certainly become more efficient.
All numbers from Statscan, rounding errors abound.
Final numbers, since this is a Québec specific article:
Grade students in QC :
2001: 1,237,980
2021: 1,389,750 (+12.2%)
Post secondary in QC :
2001: 439,857
2021: 539,385 (+22,6%)
Employed in 61 and 611 in QC :
2001: 248,867
2021: 349,925 (+40.6%)
So +15.0% students for +40.6% workers in the industry.
Note: I’m not sure if cégep falls under grade or post-secondary with Statscan’s methodology
We’ve never had as many working age people as we do today
In absolute numbers that is true, but the workforce has declined relative to the size of the population. If there are two people and one of them is in the workforce, that might be okay. If the population then grows to 100 people and now two people are in the workforce, you’ve doubled the workforce!, but you’re bound to have a bad time.
The questions are “why can’t we attract workers into X fields”
Because the workforce has shrunk, relative to the need for workers. A larger population needs more productive capacity.
but more national, question of “why does a worker, that produces more than ever, have less purchasing power than ever?”
Because we reached peak worker productivity a long, long time ago. Overall productivity is up only because capital has picked up the slack.
Funny thing is, once upon a time we encouraged our youth into university research labs to develop new capital which they could capitalize on, promising a higher income on the back of the productivity of the capital. Curiously, we heard the university part, and we heard the higher income part, but glazed over the rest. For some reason that message turned into people thinking they should go to university to get a job where they can be no more productive than any other person has ever been. And, unsurprisingly, incomes have held stagnant for that segment of the population, to which they now act like we have no idea what’s going on…
the workforce is shrinking relative to the size of the population.
That depends on the range you look at. 51.88% of the population was in the workforce in 2001, increasing to 53.41% in 2023. We did peak at 54.55%. Either way, were talking relatively minor undulations
(Statscan 1 July population estimates and labour force characteristics)
Because the workforce has shrunk, relative to the need for workers. A larger population needs more production.
Your workforce assumption was misinformed, unfortunately negating the rationale. I also drill specifically into industries 61 and 611 to show the number of workers, and number of workers per student, is actually increasing.
Productivity is up only because capital has picked up the slack.
Capital is certainly part of it, but there have also been many improvements in I-O, timekeeping, and digitization.
