The earth will survive. Humanity on the other hand will probably have to hard pivot or die.

Like everything else, the global wealthy will survive with the wealthiest elite thriving. The global poor (mostly in the the global south) will suffer the majority of the consequences. It’ll start with crops withering for lack of water and get worse from there.

There’ll be a great sorting between those two groups as the dividing line becomes starker. It probably won’t be pretty. It definitely won’t be fair. There’s no guarantee the line won’t be drawn within a country and not just between them.

How fast does this happen? If left to just “natural” processes, loss of modern agriculture will take many decades - - just slow enough to boil the frog. But humans have a particular tendency to drive faster than we can see. So in the likely chances whatever actions we take to “mitigate” climate change backfire in our face (fingers crossed on Elon dropping a bunch of rust in the ocean and killing all the krill), I think it’s more likely that many decades is optimistic.

Everything will be like in Dubai

It’s really hard to predict the future but we know for sure that it’ll cause a great deal of suffering. Certain areas will become less or completely unhabitable and the people occupying them won’t just lay down and die. It’s very likely that conflicts over things like drinking water will escalate into wars, increasing the casualties and suffering but humanity will go on. At least we get to live in the end times of the fuck around era. Next generations are slipping straight into the find out fun times.

the first will lead to the second. we depend on the animals, the oceans, the atmosphere, the plants, the insects, and so on for our own species survival. as those things go extinct or become too extreme for this besides outlier insects and microbes to survive in, we won’t have the supports we need to keep being here. probably not extinction in my own lifetime but i’m closer to a century than to childhood.