Ranvier
Talking about it won’t make it happen. But political action can’t happen if it’s not talked about! We’re again at this impasse where according to your view point, no one is allowed to stake out a political position unless there’s already a certainty for it to pass. How is anyone supposed to build consensus and improve support for something like that? More people from any party, whether that’s democrat republican independent or a third party, supporting your position is a good thing and makes it more likely to happen. Running on a platform and popularizing it is political action. And “republicans don’t like it” is generally the obstacle when you’re talking about democrats passing a law yeah. Because they get elected to congress too and can vote against it (or worse the president). I’m not claiming every democrat supports it, obviously that is not the case. But getting more and more people to adopt the position is how you get to the political action. Politicians staking out a position and then people voting for the ones whose position matches your own is how this whole thing works.
Yes, that’s true. The poll averages themselves haven’t moved much either though. And the reliance on the fundamentals forecast has me nervous, but they definitely do it for a reason. When they developed the models and looked at poll history the pattern they found was the fundamentals had a big influence on what the polls would look like closer to the election and the eventual result. Polls closer to the election are more predictive than the fundamentals. Polls farther away from the election less so. There’s at least some reason to think things have changed enough maybe the fundamentals aren’t as fundamental for this race, but I guess we won’t know until afterward.
Yes and Medicare, Medicaid, the children’s health insurance program (chip), the affordable care act, all passed by Democrats. And there’s now three states with their own public option, all passed by Democrats.
I don’t understand why you don’t want politicians talking about things you support more. I wish the public option and Medicare for all were brought up even more. Talking about it less doesn’t make it more likely to happen, even if you’re not sure if the votes will be there to do it I the next cycle. If politicians who support Medicare for all keep doing well in elections, other politicians will see that and adopt that position too Then hey maybe enough someday will finally get elected they can get it all passed together. Politicians love passing stuff, it makes them more likely to be re elected. FDR didn’t get re elected four times by doing nothing.
Okay, so if the goal isn’t accomplished in 4 years, politicians are no longer able to mention it again, got it.
And he can’t do either of these things congress would be require for both. Neither are promises.
I don’t think Sanders and AOC would be pushing so hard for Biden to stay the candidate if they didn’t think he was the best way to get policies they approve of in action.
So according to you, politicians aren’t allowed to express their opinions on any issue or propose any policies, unless they have the ability to foretell the result of all the upcoming elections, to know exactly who will be elected and if there will be enough support from the other 535 people needed for making laws. Got it.
So we will run on nothing and say nothing about any possible policies until we already know it has happened after the election, just to be safe. Dems will win in a landslide for sure, running on this message of we won’t say.
And I assume you are upset with every politician who ever proposed something that then didn’t happen. Bernie, AOC, how dare you mention single payer and then don’t make it happen.
Look, breaking a campaign promise would be if a politician is running for a position, that position has the power to do something and then they don’t do it. The president cannot make a public option out of thin air. It must be passed as a law. They have some influence for sure. But a broken campaign promise would be congress passed a public option, sent it to Biden’s desk, and then he vetoed it. That would be a broken campaign promise.
Exactly, I think because races have been so close lately, and the probabilities are ending up close to 50% often, people sometimes unintentionally conflate them with poll numbers. 53% to 46% would be a massive poll lead. For probabilities though in this situation it’s the same as saying they have even odds of winning. Look at those massive 95% confidence intervals, the race is in a statistical dead heat. It’s kind of remarkable how steady it has been despite all the wild events that have happened.
I have another good one very applicable to the teamsters union, Biden and democrats saved their pension fund.
Pensions that 360,000 retired teamster union workers were relying on.
I really doubt Republicans would have lifted a finger. Probably would have just laughed as one of the largest unions in America collapsed.
Heck here’s some more good union news from Democrats. The new regulations and pro labor leadership of the nlrb have helped increase union election success rate to 74%, it’s highest level in at least 15 years. It brought back over 8,000 workers that had been unjustly fired from their work places as retaliation for unionizing activities.
The contrast with Republicans couldn’t be starker. Project 2025 recommends firing general counsel and leadership of the NLRB “day one,” purging existing civil servants so they can hire their own anti union sycophants, and passing new regulations to make it easier to dissolve unions and harder to form them.
He knows that Biden and democratic policies have been good to unions, heck the teamsters pension fund was even bailed out by them in 2022, preventing large pension cuts to 350,000 union workers.
Going to be a real leopard ate my face moment if Trump wins and fills the national labor board with anti union officials again.
It’s especially inexplicable because in straw polls Biden has a clear lead in support among teamster members.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/11/us/politics/teamsters-trump-biden.html
“But you know,” Mr. Palmer added, “you can pick up a snake and play with it, but if you play with it enough, it’s going to bite you eventually.”