xiaohongshu [none/use name]

Western Marxists are too afraid to be associated with Russia. No way they’ll ever take the Putin bucks.

The goal of the Democratic Party is to become the Republican Party, not to win elections.

Let’s put it this way: the goal is to capture Republican donors, not to capture Republican voters. Two separate things.

Kim Il-sung’s DPRK had benefited greatly from the Sino-Soviet split since neither side wanted the DPRK to fall into the influence of the other.

Also, keep in mind that the DPRK in the 60s and 70s, after being bombed to hell during the Korean War, had higher GDP per capita (both industrialization and living standards) than the People’s Republic of China. A small country that was touted as an economic miracle comparable to post-war Japan.

Kim Jong-il had hated China since China normalized relations with South Korea in 1983 as part of its “reform and opening up” strategy. He came to power in 1994 at the worst possible time ever, with the dissolution of the Soviet Union (import of cheap fuel that powers their highly mechanized agricultural equipments fell to a complete halt), together with the century’s worst climate disaster between 1994-96, plunged the country into widespread famine.

His eldest son (from his first wife) and heir apparent, Kim Jong-nam, was a fervent supporter of Dengist China and was ultimately purged in 2001. His first wife died in Moscow in 2002 following the purge. Kim Jong-nam would eventually be assassinated in Malaysia in 2017.

Kim Jong Un (son from his second wife) was subsequently summoned back from a Swiss international school and was groomed to be his next heir.

Kim Jong Un crafted his image and physical appearance meticulously to resemble those of his grandfather’s (Kim Il-sung) - a fat bespectacled man - who is permanently revered by the North Korean populace and to deliberately distance himself from the rule of his father that happened during the Arduous March.

It is clear that at this point, the DPRK no longer has the influence it used to have to extract concessions and favors from China, especially with the exponential growth of the Chinese economy that left everyone in the dust.

Kim’s strategy has been to engage in a cautious diplomacy with China but will defend its sovereignty at all cost, especially when it comes to the question of nuclear weapons. Kim Jong Un really ramped up ballistic missile and nuclear tests since he assumed office in 2012, which invited Russia and China into joining UN sanctions against North Korea in 2013 (Resolution 2087).

It really took until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 that the DPRK began to receive more attention from the Russian side, who now also joined the “pariah states” under unprecedented international sanctions, and military and technological cooperation intensified between both countries. Kim was invited to visit Russia and various space and military facilities, and stayed there for weeks in 2023. Putin and Kim also had a nice personal meeting not too long ago, and Kim was visibly elated from seeing Putin lol.

It remains to be seen where DPRK stands with China, and how China will choose to prioritize between its relationship between the Western consumer markets versus Russia and North Korea on the other side of its borders.

The Global South was already impacted so heavily by the previous rate hikes that now it’s going to increase, not decrease(!), the borrowing of USD loans… IMF is going to flood the developing world with dollars again because many countries have run out of dollars to buy food and fuel.

This is why I always said there is a “critical period” for BRICS (and especially China) to do something when the Fed increased the rates for the past 2.5 years. Many countries were genuinely looking for an alternative, but now this critical period has passed and they’re gonna become re-addicted to the dollar again.

Even if you have a new currency rolled out now, who’s going to want to take the risks? Are you going to take the risk of a “good will” China over the most desirable, all-convenient asset of the US dollar? A new form of currency that challenges the dominance of the dollar can only be a viable project when countries genuinely have difficulties with earning dollars (as they did in the last 2.5 years).

The US gambled that the Global South dared not replace the dollar when the weakness of the dollar was so nakedly exposed with the Fed rate hikes, and guess what, they were right after all. There really hasn’t been an alternative to the dollar since all the talks about de-dollarization in 2022.

We now have to wait until the next cycle of US financial crisis to have this opportunity again. It may come sooner than we think though, but the question is whether the world is prepared or willing to have such radical change or not.

Trump will be neutralized if he is even within a shooting distance of winning, or at least made to understood that he has to step down or his life will be in permanent danger. Harris will win the election.

Yeah I’ve heard about cutting rate by summer 2024 since last year, so it seems planned. The rate cut is going to make the stock market goes up just before the election as well. Any unforeseen consequences will not manifest until at least 6-9 months later.

The US wants a recession though, just not before the election.

The military is already having difficulties with their recruitment in recent years, and a recession is going to solve that problem handily by getting more poor people enlisted so they get to die for the empire abroad rather than die from being homeless in America.

Even if the rate cuts continue, the recessionary impact will not take place until months later, by which point the electoral results will already have been decided. So not too much harm to the bourgeoisie, the working class is the one who will suffer after all.

What else are they going to do? Their funding relies on the EU, and it’s a matter of expelling the Russians or everyone loses their jobs. Of course they are going to do what the EU wants them to do.

Nope, you’re just waking up from a dream.

Now all that’s left to do is to read theory and start putting them into practice.

Although people have been arguing about the technical definitions of recessions, the impact of a recession is very clear and palpable.

Think 2008 - when even just a small fraction of people could no longer repay their loans and cut back consumption, consumer demand dampened, industries cut back production, workers were laid off, more people who have lost their jobs became poorer and no longer able to afford consumption. The chain reaction quickly spirals out of control and once the economy is in a recessionary spiral, it’s very difficult to get out. People lose their jobs, savings, homes (can no longer afford their mortgage) etc and the effects quickly multiply throughout the economy.

And if this takes place in a country with strong consumer base like the US, then a recession will also send shockwaves across the world, just like in 2008. Export economies like China will once again have to face the impact of sharp plunge in Western consumer demand, and it directly affects production and employment (in 2008 China was able to avoid recession by increasing investment in infrastructure and building dozens and dozens of new cities, which led to the property crisis they are having today. The question is now that investment in China already through the roof, and the options to avoid recession by spending in investment are no longer available). Many other weaker economies will suffer even worse than they already are, and the depressive effects will be global in nature.

In other words, once we’re in a recession, you’ll know it. Everyone will suffer to a varying extent. That’s because we all live in a tightly integrated global economy.