Here we go, the first Presidential debate between Biden and Trump begins at 9 PM Eastern/6 PM Pacific.
How to watch it:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/25/politics/how-to-watch-cnn-debate/index.html
"The CNN Presidential Debate will air live on CNN, CNN International and CNN en Español, and via streaming on Max for subscribers and without a cable login on CNN.com. CNN will make the debate available to simulcast on additional broadcast and cable news networks.
You can also follow CNN’s live debate coverage on CNN.com, which will include analysis and fact checking."
"According to parameters set by CNN in May, all participating debaters had to appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to reach the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidency and receive at least 15% in four separate national polls of registered or likely voters that meet CNN’s standards for reporting.
Polls that meet those standards are those sponsored by CNN, ABC News, CBS News, Fox News, Marquette University Law School, Monmouth University, NBC News, The New York Times/Siena College, NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College, Quinnipiac University, The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post."
Edit And that’s it! Thanks for watching everyone!
tl;dw:
Consensus is Trump didn’t so much as beat Biden as Biden beat himself.
The real loser is CNN who failed to fact check anyone, and there were obvious fact checks on both sides.
Show me one with higher poll numbers than Biden. When they were head to head in 2020 each polled lower than Biden against Trump.
I don’t want to defend Biden. He should go. He is a corrupt old man with a ton of baggage and his Palestine policy was atrocious. But I don’t see any of those people beating Trump based on the data we have.
Really. You want me to show polls for something that hasn’t happened yet? In 2020, what are you talking about? Half these people I mentioned didn’t even run in the 2020 Primaries, forgetting the obvious logical fallacy that “Who does well in the primaries predicts who does better a year from then in the General Election.” In 2020, Joe Biden was 4 years younger and far less senile than he shows now while Trump’s support was lower mostly thanks to a botched handling of covid at the time.
There is not one data-point where Biden isn’t performing worse than he did at this time in 2020.
In the event Biden voluntarily steps down and either an open convention occurs or he endorses, is it really that inconceivable for you to believe overnight polling for such a candidate would skyrocket as both grassroots and establishment and MASSIVE widespread media press inundate such a person with coverage…?
I mean… What?
The data shows the American people (a) vehemently dislike both candidates, (b) perceive age to be a bigger issue with Biden, and © want fresh faces. Any of who I mentioned could’ve done better last night. Biden brings nothing to the table that the others cannot in this pressing moment.
We already have Newsom vs Biden and Newsom vs Trump polls. And the pundits talked endlessly in 2020 about the shortcomings of each candidate and why they’d struggle against Trump. We’ve been through this already.
If Biden steps down then of course whoever gets nominated will get a bump of course, but like we discussed collectively in 2020, they’d have their own separate hurdles. Bernie Sanders would energize many voters but his socialism talk would turn many voters off. Pete Buttigieg struggled to connect with voters of color. Warren had some political flubs and Trump launched many attacks on her etc. while there’s concern many Americans still won’t vote for a woman for president, and so on. The point I’m making is that you may find yourself in a situation in October where you WISH Biden was running again with his high poll numbers and solid national record that other candidates lack.
That’s a fair point but just consider these points:
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That’s an insane polling for someone who has not once threw their hat in the ring and actually campaigned nationally outside of California.
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We’re already starting with a President who is predicted by polling to lose to Donald Trump.
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Key to note, Biden’s numbers are generally baked in. Everyone knows everything about Biden, and the law of diminishing returns suggests nobody is going to find out something they dont’ already know.
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Whereas just the opposite is true with the likes of Whitmer & Newsom: months of viral media attention, actual national campaigns and speeches, debates, interviews – have the opportunity for someone to familiarize themselves with such alternate candidates and see the contrast of, “Wow, this guy can actually talk coherently and is far younger…” So you have to tell me with a straight face that once committed to be the nominee their name-recognition and approval skyrocket overnight.
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Mentioned weaknesses of candidates can be offset by a VP pick, as they always are.
In truth, we really haven’t been through this already. To conclude otherwise is to suggest that Joe Biden is literally the best candidate Democrats can field, which at his age and with his debate performance, is an incredibly low bar.
