And the biggest effect is that this will cause Trump supporters to have high turnout rates.
Could you explain how? Flip it around: if a registered Dem took a shot at Biden would that help his turnout? I’m not so sure.
It depends on how it was handled. Trump got an excellent PR photo, and the dems have been tripping over each other in their rush to support him and civility. This is a massive win for Trump in the eyes of his voterbase. In non-Trump voter eyes, it won’t make any difference, but it doesn’t need to. This election will be won or lost not by policy, but by voter engagement, and Biden has been doing very poorly recently with that regard.
How many Trumpers will even have this at the front of whatever passes for their minds in 4 month’s time?
I’ll bet you actual money there will be shirts, shoes, hats, and bumper stickers of that moment.
Quite a few. It’s a positive impact to his campaign.
This election cycle isn’t going to be won by bringing voters in from across the aisle, or appealing more to centrists. This election is going to be won by whichever candidate can energize voters more within swing states.
Realistically, I expect Biden to win the popular vote and lose the electoral college.
Your mistake is using the usual logic. That flip only works to identify breaks in a logical way of thinking and serves to highlight how something might not make sense in reverse. Except instead of If A then B and if B maybe not A, we have:
If not fascist, vote Biden
vs
Trump.
He is the equation. No if-then statements, no maybes, nothing. Just the equation of Trump.
He is their god-king. If he says drink cyanide, a shocking percentage would do so. Because of the assassination attempt the timeline has shifted. It is no longer a race of one terrible choice and one middle-of-the-road choice, now especially it is about image and the charisma to represent a figure to the people who need to vote. Allow me to lay a short timeline:
Joe announces a second term. This was his chance to tell all of us that if he can’t do it he will step down, for the good of all of us. This creates trust in a leader that understands what is important.
Trump confirms he will run. GOP immediately behind him while playing smoke and mirrors.
Fast forward through mostly normal months if you put aside all the court meetings with Trump at the head.
Joe challenges Trump to a debate. ALL OF US expect Trump to get destroyed. Despite his intelligence, old age is showing and Biden fumbles the ball. Honestly not badly in any other year, he just fumbled it next to one of the biggest imbeciles in recent history and because expectations were high, the fall went further.
However, this is a chance for Joe to recover. Apologize for his performance. Go full Dark Brandon. Explode out onto the news and talk shows. Hire Wendy’s PR team and have then run his social media accounts. Admit he fucked up and then step up strongly and precisely. This is how you turn these situations around in your favor.
He continues to fumble and honestly? It isn’t truly even his fault, until he admits that he is staying in to “do his best”. Now the responsibility is 100% on his shoulders for everything, period. Before this he may have had wiggle room. Unfortunately, that is a statement of ownership. It was not popular.
Then Trump gets shot. Since it happened, best case was him not getting hit at all. Second best was the shooter finding success. Worst case scenario, well…see Trump holding a pose, blood running down the side of his face. Before this moment, Biden was unpopular, though still Biden. There remained ways to regain a foothold. Now even I, who supported him staying in, cannot find a reason for him to do so. He’s lost the image game. A single bullet shifted the scale.
To win now it’s on us to be the leaders. We all need to come out in numbers never before seen. Without our own figurehead, and there are people whose image could easily challenge and outstrip Trump’s, we can now only rely on our collective desire to stop this evil. The problem is the people who can beat him don’t want the job.
They would be heroes.
I just don’t feel they’ll step up.
I just don’t feel they’ll step up.
Nobody is going to risk fracturing the party by announcing that they’re running against the incumbent. It’s really on Biden to declare he’s out of the race first. I hope he does so.
The best thing for US Democracy, the people of the US, and no hyperbole the entire world, would be if Biden got hospitalized through natural illness. He’d be forced to step aside, the “Back Biden no matter what” crowd would have to back a new candidate, the “Please any Democrat except Biden” would get a new candidate, and no one looks weak (or at least not any weaker than they do already).
Then when he recovers, after the election, he can be a strong advisor to the new Democratic president.
The party is fractured. The only thing the majority agrees on is not Trump. A true and popular figurehead can shore up the doubtful. Biden has a way out now, though from my perspective only one. I am hoping beyond hope there is someone smarter than me on their team with a brilliant counterplay.
I’m sorry did you really say you decided Biden couldn’t win because Trump got shot? Are you not going to vote for Biden over it too?
Sorta sounds like all we need to do to fix this problem is for you to vote for Biden. Would also help if you didnt make arguments against voting for him too. What’s your end goal here anyways?
I believe that on the current course with no changes that the road to victory just got a lot more difficult.
Which I said.
In my post.
That you should read out loud to yourself.
