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283 points

Guy who buys programmers and sells AI thinks he can sell more AI and stop buying programmers.

This is up there with Uber pretending self driving cars will make them rich.

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43 points

I mean… self driving cars probably will. Just not as soon as they think. My guess, at least another decade.

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68 points

Not until a self driving car can safely handle all manner of edge cases thrown at it, and I don’t see that happening any time soon. The cars would need to be able to recognize situations that may not be explicitly programmed into it, and figure out a safe way to deal with it.

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51 points

As someone said on this thread: as soon as they can convince legislators, even if they are murder machines, capital will go for it.

Borrowing from my favorite movie: “it’s just a glitch”.

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37 points

there will be a massive building in like india with many thousand of atrociously paid workers donning VR goggles who spend their long hours constantly Quantum Leap finding themselves in traumatizing last second emergency situations that the AI gives up on. Instantly they slam on the brakes as hard as they can. They drink tea. there’s suicide netting everywhere. they were the lowest bidder this quarter.

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7 points

Plus, as soon as the cars can drive themselves people will stop needing Uber in many cases.

No parking? Just tell your car to go park on a street 10 blocks away.

Drunk? Car drives itself while you sleep.

Going to the airport? Car drops you off and returns home. Car also picks you up when you are back.

This is combined with the fact that people will do more disgusting things in an Uber without the driver there. If you have ever driven for Uber, you know that 10% of people are trying to eat or drink in the car. They are going to spill and it’s going to end up like the back of a bus.

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6 points

Their accident rate continues to decrease and things like quorum sensing and platooning are going to push them to be better than humans. You’re never going to have a perfect system that never has accidents, but if you’re substantially better than humans in accidents per mile driven and you’re dramatically improving throughput and reducing traffic through V2X, it’s going to make sense to fully transition.

I imagine some east Asian countries will be the first to transition and then the rest of the world will begrudgingly accept it once the advantages become clear and the traditional car driving zealots die off.

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3 points

“handle” is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. The signs are already there that all of these edge cases will just be programmed as “safely pull over and stop until conditions change or a human takes control”. Which isn’t a small task in itself, but it’s a lot easier than figuring out to continue (e.g.) on ice.

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1 point

Just like all humans can do right now, right?

I never see any humans on the rode staring at their phone and driving like shit.

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1 point

Those self-driving cars are called trains. They already can be self-driving. In a situation where the computational complexity and required precision are somewhat controlled, that is, on train tracks.

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7 points

Maybe, or maybe like harnessing fusion it will always be “just a few more years away!”

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6 points

Self driving taxis are definitely happening, but the people getting rich in a gold rush are the people selling shovels.

Uber has no structural advantage because their unique value proposition is the army of cheap drivers.

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4 points

We’re a century away from self-driving cars that can handle snowfall

Just this year farmers with self-driving tractors got screwed because a solar flare made GPS inaccurate and so tractors went wild because they were programmed with the assumption of GPS being 100% reliable and accurate with no way to override

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2 points

I’m right there with you, but I also remember hearing that this time last decade.

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1 point

Way longer. Roads will have to be designed and maintained with them in mind.

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