Vladimir Putin has “made a decision” and there will be “severe punishment” following Ukraine’s incursion into Russia, according to the Russian ambassador to the US.
Mr Putin was clearly frustrated at the Ukrainian incursion, but a ruthless Russian military response was only one option. Ukraine is short of military capability - soldiers and weapons - and it appears that they have deployed up to 10,000 soldiers (probably battle-hardened) into Russian territory. This “fixes” these Ukrainian forces well away from the frontline Russian action in the Donbas.
Mr Putin knows that progress on the frontline will slow when winter arrives, so his forces have perhaps 10 to 12 weeks remaining to achieve the objectives of his so-called Special Military Operation. By focusing on Russian main effort in the Donbas, Mr Putin knows that Ukraine has diluted the forces available to resist the Russian assault towards Pokrovsk, which might enable greater progress in the limited time available.
Once Russia’s objectives in the Donbas have been achieved, Mr Putin might consider that he can address the Kursk incursion in slower time.
What could ‘severe punishment’ mean?
The reaction to kursk will not be flashy. It will simply be another cold change of rules.
New targets targeted by cruise missiles, harsher terms for Ukrainian surrender.
We saw this after Ukraine took advantage of Russian withdrawal from kiev breaking the tacit agreement of having peace talks in exchange for the withdrawal. Russia kept attacking and stopped accepting peace talks where Ukraine doesnt accept their terms.
We saw this after Ukraine retook kharkov and attacked the kerch bridge (crimea was not part of the fighting area). Russia started punishing Ukrainian power transmission capacity.
