archived https://archive.ph/0lnCy
I don’t think it’s about miracles. It’s about intelligence. I guarantee that the US lacked the intelligence it wanted on Russian capabilities and part of this entire conflict has been about trying to draw more Russian capabilities out into the open so they can be assessed. The US has so much materiel, so much intelligence gathering apparatus, so much ability to hide their capabilities. I think it’s feasible that the US could wait out any opponent in any conflict. The worst thing for all of us would be for the US to fundamental change the state of play, and therefore I think we need to remain skeptical of our own assessments of the ground truth and look for as much evidence as possible of being incorrect. Otherwise we’re going to get blindsided if it turns out we’re wrong.
We obviously can’t dismiss different possibilities, but everything we’ve seen over past two years indicates that US is not having much success. I disagree that US can wait out Russia here because US is increasingly seeing lack of political will to keep going. It’s worth noting that exact same thing happened in Vietnam and Afghanistan where US was forced to pull out in the end when the cost of the war got too high. The cost of keeping Ukraine going eclipses those conflicts.
US also has much tougher logistics situation than Russia, and this I would say is the biggest factor. Russia can just ship weapons and ammunition by rail while the west is not able to disrupt that in any way. On the other hand, US has to ship stuff across the ocean and through multiple countries only to have much of it blown up once it crosses the Ukrainian border.
There’s also nothing magical in terms of what Russia is doing. They have artillery dominance that they use to great effect. They depleted Ukrainian air defence, and now Russian aviation operates with impunity. They use drones to hunt Ukrainian armor. And finally, they have massive mine fields that are effectively impassible.
There’s been no evidence over the past two years to indicate that US has some ace up their sleeve, but I guess we’ll see soon.
I agree with your assessment of the Russian position. I disagree with the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
I doubt it was a political will situation, nor a cost thing. It seems more likely that it was a useful base of operations for black ops and asymmetrical covert war and influence campaigns against China. US contractors were making a lot of profit. And 20 years in Afghanistan hadn’t managed to get the US to anything resembling Vietnam levels of unrest.
To me, the withdrawal from Afghanistan was either mission accomplished in establishing and embedding asymmetrical capabilities in the guerilla networks and/or a need to remove a weak holding in advance of a war with China to avoid it being a distracting front and/or a need to pull back materiel for redeployment. I am not convinced it was money loss nor political will.
Afghanistan campaign was basically the same playbook US used against USSR, where they hoped that they could spread extremism into Soviet republics. With China they tried to do the same in Xinjiang using Afghanistan as the base for that. China managed to deal with the issue decisively, and US ended up mired in a costly war that ultimately failed to achieve any geopolitical objectives. Afghanistan is now on good relations with China and Russia which is basically the worst possible outcome for the US.
I think the loss of money and political will has to be taken in the context of US ambitions against China. A lot of US hawks started saying that Afghanistan was a waste of money when what they really need to be doing is preparing to take on China directly. Hence the political will to keep pouring money into that adventure evaporated.
Pretty much the same thing is happening with Ukraine right now where there are increasing concerns that this proxy war is depleting US military and they won’t be in a position to fight China. Meanwhile, there’s also a faction that’s deeply politically invested in Ukraine which makes a pull out difficult.
My personal impression is that US is deeply dysfunctional right now, and there’s no cohesive strategy. The whole two years have been US reacting to move China and Russia have been making, and fumbling along the way. Geopolitical outcomes have been even more profound than the actual hot war in my opinion. BRICS has become far stronger, there’s now active dedollarization happening, Russia showed that it’s possible to be cut off from the west and thrive. All of that peels apart global perception of US power and influence. This becomes a self reinforcing cycle where the more countries end up decoupling from the west the easier it becomes for other countries to do so.
Ultimately, the hot war will end on Russian terms because if Russia ever did find itself in trouble, then China would be forced to step in. The worse possible outcome for China would be either destabilized balkanized Russia under western control. This would be an existential threat to China. Therefore, China will do whatever is necessary to ensure Russia continues to have a stable and friendly government. US has absolutely no hope of outproducing China, hence why this can only end one way.
Interesting point. I hadn’t really considered that a US goal, but they very well could be using this conflict in order to assess Russian military capabilities.
I definitely think that was part of the goal, but Russia hasn’t really revealed much so far. We now know that Russia has excellent EW capability that can disrupt western guided weapons and drones. They also showed that they have missiles that western AD can’t handle.
None of this revealed much about Russian overall capability however. One thing Russia made clear is that they have very strong military industrial complex and are not at risk of running low in terms of weapons. The big surprise for everyone, including Russia, was just how effective Russian drones ended up being.
So, far we haven’t seen any really advanced weapons like Su-57 or T-14 used, so Russia is definitely not playing their full hand here. Seems that they’re largely just clearing out their old Soviet inventory for the most part.
we haven’t seen any really advanced weapons like Su-57 or T-14
Makes me wonder if it’s because they’re vaporware, just like yankee Wunderwaffe.
Inb4 western propaganda
Nah, I just live here and know folks in scientific research and engineering. It’s all very westernised
If the US war game against China has a big question mark about Russian engagement, it would make sense to both get them wrapped up in other conflicts and also draw out their capabilities to improve intelligence. Remember Sun Tzu. Direct force comparisons are a lot less useful than intelligence imbalances.
