@matthewtoad43 @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis

Yes, but I’d like to add that we need to think about lifetimes.

Let’s imagine having built all we need in 30 years, through sometimes extreme efforts.

Current solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries have a lifetime of (a bit generously) 30 years. So we’d have to immediately start again with the entire effort just to keep it up. I’m worrying that this might not be … sustainable.

@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Fortunately we will have time to work on that. There is plenty of existing renewable plant coming to the end of its service life for us to work on recycling.

Also, hopefully longer term we move towards more rooftop solar rather than farm scale, though of course the amount of land used by solar is insignificant. Short term, farm scale is easy to install; long term, rooftop could be a requirement of construction.

Just as important, once we reach 95%+ renewable electricity, the ecological cost of building new stuff, whether recycled or not, drops dramatically.

Do we want to move towards more nuclear in the long run? Maybe so. On the other hand, the cost of renewables will continue to come down, and it’s reasonable to expect the same is true of storage.

@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Also I expect demand to drop somewhat in the long term. Unfortunately the more serious degrowth measures will take decades, and the peak demand from heating and EVs means we will need a lot more electricity in 2040 than we have today.

@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis There is also the near-absolute worst case scenario where outdoor agriculture becomes untenable due to wildly inconsistent post-climate weather and the “land sharing vs land sparing” debate is forced down the land sparing route, i.e. if most food can only be grown in heated greenhouses, we’ll need vast amounts of energy. In that scenario we may well need more nuclear. But if it’s that bad that fast I have my doubts that civilisation can survive the transition; that sort of agriculture is very capital intensive as well as energy intensive, although it is higher yield and makes space for rewilding, and potentially could be our only option if things get really bad.

PS I am not endorsing climate controlled indoor agriculture here. I don’t have a clear view on the land sharing vs land sparing thing. I know which side most “degrowth” people would take though.

@matthewtoad43 @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis

I think you do not realize how much of our population only exists because of Haber and Bosch.

@MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis
It appears necessary (or inevitable) to shift our #culture towards #collectivism, which would entail radically different rates and modes of #consumption, and collection and use of #public funds. If large #states can’t keep up, we need smaller ones that adapt and learn from each other. Material is abundant, we need to #distribute as it’s needed. I agree with the urgency you express. Do you believe there is a path to avoid disaster?

@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis I’m not 100% sold on either view of agriculture, as I hint at above. Certainly organic farming goes too far - yields matter, because increased land use ultimately means more deforestation. However if yields are achieved through ecosystem destroying pollution and soil degradation that ultimately reduces yields, there’s a problem.

Short term, hydrogen isn’t a means of storing energy, it’s a vital industrial ingredient, including for fertilisers, which mostly comes from fossil gas.

Cover crops could be introduced with a net increase in yields, while storing vast amounts of carbon, but generally cannot be afforded without a specific subsidy because our agricultural system is broken.

Not to mention the immense waste caused by biofuels. And by meat and dairy.

So there’s lots to discuss there as well. (But not today)

@matthewtoad43 @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis

Sorry, but the term »degrowth« is a red flag for me.

Sure, we are getting more efficient over time. That’s why even Germany’s emissions fell over the last two decades.

But cutting power that is actually needed means poverty, and that will immediately end support for long-term thinking as well as severely limit our technical options.

There are too many people for romantic visions of rural self-sufficiency.

@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis There are aspects of it that I disagree with.

More to the point there are implications that I disagree with. Clearly there is a need for growth in large parts of the world, and even amongst the poor in my own country.

On the other hand, there are many areas where demand reduction makes sense to speed up the transition. It is going to be many years before we have clean aviation, for instance. And a world with say 70% fewer cars in would be highly desirable for many good reasons.

Both the transition and the climate crisis will cause much suffering, requiring redistribution. Much of the work that needs to be done on efficiency can only be practically funded by the state.

And so you get degrowth: a reframing of politics and economics around a fair transition to sustainability.

Though perhaps the term isn’t the ideal messaging.

I posted a relatively popular rant about how primitivism and degrowth are two very different things a while back. Can’t find it right now.

Anyway, thanks for the discussion. I hope that you’re right on a few things. 😀

@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis It’s also in opposition to the wider political picture of an alliance between fossil fuels, fascists, religion, the old right wing parties and so on, of course. 😀

That also makes it political.

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