it’s really hard to know what to think of all of this except that it’s all very hard to take at face value. All I keep thinking of is how shocked the Russian people themselves must be. I’m curious as t what their media messaging is, and what they’re being told-- I’m sure what we’re being told is a mix of State messaging, rumor, and conjecture, but what they’re getting is likely 100% propaganda. What must they think?
and something I haven’t seen people asking: how much did Lukashenko know beforehand? Because this guy isn’t the sharpest bulb in the shed. For him to suddenly sweep in with some negotiation that ends this so suddenly makes it feel like a setup.
I think you’re doing Lukashenko discredit. While he’s certainly not a nice man he’s one of the very few people whose political careers survived the end of the soviet union, not only that but he prevented shock therapy from happening in Belarus, keeping much of the industry. More recently he managed to avoid the US attempts at regime change and successfully crack down on NED funded NGOs that existed to achieve those ends. All the potato memes should be seen as just that - memes. Lukashenko was the obvious party to go to as capable of being trusted by both Prigo and Putin, able to provide security and assurances to both. Very few others could have done it, Erdogan perhaps but Prigo is wanted for conspiracy to defraud the US in the west, he’s on the FBI lists, so he couldn’t go to a country with any extradition treaty with the US.
As for the Russian public they seem to view both sides of this disagreement positively, which is the complicated part of it. From their perspective this is two sides that they like having a disagreement. They love Wagner as war heroes but also love the Russian army as heroes too. So this whole situation is a “please stop fighting we like both of you” issue, how much of that is motivated by not wanting it to affect the frontlines is uncertain.
I mostly agree with the rest.
ya know… i can accept that I underestimated Lukashenko, but the swiftness of his response combined with the stunning and peaceful 180 by Prigo… you must admit, it’s very suspicious. The clockwork timing of it all suggests something more complicated going on. This all feels like theater.
Will you reassess this thought in 3-4 weeks if/when nothing else happens? I think it’s extremely unlikely that this is a grand scheme and that the reason this is being pushed comes from the fact that they have to keep the idea alive that Russia could collapse at any moment. If it isn’t a grand scheme then its failure forces the acceptance that Russia isn’t going to collapse and that the war is therefore entirely unwinnable, so it is much easier to present this as not having been a real coup/rebellion at all in order to keep that belief alive.
Russian people are not as unaware of current events as you may think. It’s not like they don’t have access to the internet, and the Russian media reporting on the day was not any less detailed or timely than Western media.
A common take that I’ve seen is that both Putin and Prigozhin appeared weak: Prigozhin by backing out, Putin by having no one standing up against Prigozhin as he drove into Rostov, and then letting Prigozhin off without any major repercussions.
It’s unlikely that Prigozhin will come back due to completely discrediting himself in front of whatever support he had, but it’s possible someone else may attempt the same thing at a later point. After all, if they win, they take everything; if they lose, they get a slap on the wrist.